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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    DT going with the euro for this event. Wow, didn't see that coming.
  2. WxUSAF
    0z euro is gorgeous…until you look at temps.
  3. WxUSAF
    Dq fuq is this? pinned
  4. WxUSAF
    I like the setup for V-day a lot. Simple, classic. Just got a shit airmass ahead of it which leads to the need for a needle threading with the northern stream. But if it fails, there’s more chances beyond.
  5. WxUSAF
    Only the new gfs could take such a perfect setup and turn it into a rainstorm. I’m sending a strongly worded email to NCEP to correct the 12z run.
  6. WxUSAF
    I think we have 3 storm windows right now that we can see in the medium-long range: 13-14th. 18-19th. ~22-25th that you and others have been mentioning for a week already. and I’m sure there would be more chances beyond that.
  7. WxUSAF
    12z is the closest yet to a phase. That would be the big dog…
  8. WxUSAF
    GEFS looks pretty loaded to me. Mean track for the 13-15 period is to our south. And then a couple periods with something big potentially after the 18th.
  9. WxUSAF
    Gfs fumbles the HECS chance, but lots of potential on this run.
  10. WxUSAF
    Gfs has a clipper right after that that blue’s us.
  11. WxUSAF
    Blend of the GFS (suppressed to Savannah) and GGEM (cutter to Detroit) is pretty good for us for the v-day threat.
  12. WxUSAF
    I thought 0z GEFS was the best look yet for that PD period. 6z GEFS a bit more south, but these are all small changes for 15 days out.
  13. WxUSAF
    Looks not dry
  14. WxUSAF
    EPS weeklies are dry with the progression with that H5 look Brooklynn posted??
  15. WxUSAF
    @griteater…could this strat weakening be similar to early January? Where a growing -NAO helped weaken the strat vortex which reinforced -NAO?
  16. WxUSAF
    All those ensemble means showing troughing in the 50/50 region as well. I don’t know if we get a HECS, but seems like it would take incredible bad luck to not get a really nice event later this month.
  17. WxUSAF
    Sucks for NYC-BOS.
  18. WxUSAF
    Precip map is lit up. Especially for D15. Rest up now, gonna be busy soon.
  19. WxUSAF
    I think it was early January 2017? We had this amazing look for a huge overrunning event that was very consistent from like D7-13. But it got within D7 and the arctic air won and we got a very cold, but mostly dry, week in January. Think we got a small clipper to drop a dusting-2".
  20. WxUSAF
    No, that's the control run. It's essentially the Euro op run out to Day 45.
  21. WxUSAF
    Boy howdy, GEFS is purty at the end. Woof woof aleet aleet
  22. WxUSAF
    GEFS has a better track for the 12-13th, looks like it’s to the south on the mean but with a lot of scatter. But dat airmass tho…
  23. WxUSAF
    The first time there’s a single run-to-run EPS change to slightly warmer temps after Feb 15 BAMwx will hit the torch emoji so damn fast…
  24. WxUSAF
    Today is a great day to sign Jordan Montgomery
  25. WxUSAF
    ^I think there’s no reasonable doubt that this longwave pattern is coming. Question now becomes tracking individual shortwaves. Period around the 12th still looks too warm to me. EPS is very northern stream dominated for that period. GEFS has a southern low pass more or less over us on the means, but airmass is pretty bad leading in.
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