John1122

Thought this one was fired up already since fall started a couple weeks ago. Just realized I was posting in the spring/summer thread still. Of course love to keep winter storm obs in the storm threads for later reading all in a single thread. But these are good for daily obs or notable events outside the storm threads. That said, I hit 47.3 this morning after a day time high of 69 degrees yesterday. Pretty similar temperatures for this same period in September 2015 when we got a nice first cold front of the season on 9/13 and had two days of great temps. It was 70/46 on 9/13 and 66/43 on 9/14 that year. Current temp is 71 degrees here, sunny. It was 72 about an hour ago but dropped back a little. In 2015 we never got back above the 84ish range after the front. It had been in the upper 80s for days on end leading into it.

Great taste of fall out there today. 68 degrees and sunny can't be beat in mid-September.

The GFS is showing a crazy heat dome in the center of the country in about 8-12 days. On day 9 the 0z is showing 105-110 for West Tennessee, NW Miss, and Arkansas. The Euro isn't as hot, the Canadian isn't as hot either but it's spread out across the forum area with temps near 90-95

I think you guys and west Tennessee might be primed for a third snowy winter in a row, especially with the Nina looking to be in the weak range. The spine of the Apps seems to often be the battle ground in that set up, with potential for big early snows if it behaves anything like past 3rd year Ninas.

Pretty good day of football. Vols win vs a top 20 team on the road, Notre Dame loses, Texas A&M gets embarrassed, Florida loses, unfortunately Darth Saban pulled it out.

We had a normal amount of fireflies it seemed like to me. They do like wet weather though and struggle more in drought years, so if you were dry in late spring and early summer it might hamper your area a bit. Otherwise, I can't explain it.

Euro Snowfall vs Normal Dec/Jan

Just read an article about the stratospheric cooling that's happened this year in the Southern Hemisphere. The article noted that cold stratosphere conditions in the Southern Hemisphere as they move into summer usually indicate the opposite in the Northern Hemisphere. There was a moderate correlation to a -NAO in the winter here as the Southern stratosphere cooled over the Polar regions there. There was also a possible connection to warming/weakened Polar Vortex conditions over the north pole when the stratosphere was colder than normal in the South Pole areas. The stratosphere down South is hitting record lows and that's drifting futher South towards the pole as the year is wearing on. So possible good news for the winter lovers, of which we mostly seem to be as a group.

Rowdy storms and heavy rain for hours last night. The thunder just kept rolling and shaking the house. Three different waves.

The GFS pulled a fast one at 12z, will see if it's a blip or a trend. Several days in a row it's had a big cool shot to close out the month and begin next month. At 00z it had lows in the 40s for Sept 1st for a large part of the region. 12 hours later, lows near 75 and a heatwave with highs in the mid 90s to low 100s. At 00z Sept 1st at 1pm central the temp was forecast to be 68 in Nashville, at 12z it's now forecast to be 99. That's a mega swing. It did that often last winter too, with 30 and 40 degree temperature differences from run to run.

September looks to come in and remain chilly if the models are to be believed. It would be nice to have an actual cool down in fall rather than the burners we've had lately. Makes for tough Friday evening football. Comfortable weather would be a refreshing change.

Weird pattern today. 1 to 3 mile wide bands of extremely heavy rain, with dry and sunny weather in between. Been driving through them across Campbell, Anderson and now Knox as I'm heading to the K.O.C Jamboree at Central.

Not surprisingly, a lot of flooding reported here after that monster rainer. 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain fell in the county in about an hour. Saw some photos from down in LaFollette of nearly knee deep water in the Food City parking lot.

The rainfall rate is off the charts with this one. It's colors are off the color chart on the accuweather radar and are pegged out on the weather channel radar.

The daily downpour is under way. Another big time lightning and thunder producer. Nothing severe as yet, can do without losing power again today.

I went to my mower a few minutes ago, and sure enough as soon as I started it, deafening thunder. Now raining, again. Grass is getting extreme.

Dec 1975 was -3 here but near normal in the Eastern areas, however that was a strong Nina which is really warm overall for everyone except the very far NW forum areas. December 2000 was exceptionally cold. -10 to -12 from the Plateau and West, -6 to -8 far eastern areas. It was a weak La Nina.

Right at 1.8 inches of rain from this and still coming down. Tons of thunder and lightning again. No hail but severe level winds knocked out power county wide.

I was going to finally mow tomorrow as the grass had mostly dried out. So of course with what was a less than 20 percent chance of rain it's coming another flood.

The wind was extremely strong in this severe storm. Pulled open and bent my storm door. That's another project incoming.

Yes, Whitley ended up with a lot of road and other flood damage. Especially around creek crossings. I'd love to avoid rain entirely today and honestly for the next week or more. That doesn't look likely. My yard is also out of control. It's crazy how many 500/1000 year floods we are seeing in the region over the last few years. Had two here in 2020, one in 2021, and west of Nashville had that monster event that may have been a 2000 year flood. Then Eastern Kentucky and SWVA getting slammed this past week.

I'd happily send some your way if I could. Meanwhile it's pouring here again.

After a day off yesterday, 1.55 inches has fallen today with some flooding in the area. Will see if any more falls today but am at 16.35 for July and 20+ for the last 36 days. There's so much ground water right now my septic system has a lot of rainwater in it and it's causing slow draining and flushing. I could use a dryish week or two or three.

Things you don't see often. Flash Flood warning for Furnace Creek/Death Valley. This is the hottest place on earth and driest area on the entire North American continent at nearly 200 feet below sea level in a massive rain shadow. They normally average 1.77 inches of rain per year. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 545 PM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022 The National Weather Service in Las Vegas has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Central Inyo County in south central California... * Until 845 PM PDT. * At 545 PM PDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain east of Furnace Creek. Between 0.25 and 0.75 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly and will impact highway 190 near Furnace Creek as well as Echo Canyon Road and Hole in the Wall Road. HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of low-water crossings, creeks, normally dry washes and roads. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Furnace Creek and Texas Springs Campground.

The day is still young so to speak. I've had several showers during the day light hours with a small but heavy looking one just to my west. I feel like points south will be getting in on some rain over the next couple of hours.