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John1122

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  1. John1122
    After a quick look, 2013 is the only year since at least 1970 with no single digit lows. There were 3 others that had no single digit lows in Jan-March that ended up going into the singles or colder in December. 2013 the yearly low imby was 12.
  2. John1122
    Truly cold out there, currently at 18 degrees. Coldest night since March 21st, when it was 14. March 20th and 21st were the coldest mornings of 2023. 13 and 14 respectively. Unless we really chill down in December, this may be one of the few calendar years of my life that didn't have a single digit low temperature in the entire 12 months.
  3. John1122

    ENSO

    John1122 replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Looks like 1-2 have cooled to around +1 with a steady downward trend, while 3.4 has warmed to +1.7ish as of November 20th. Possibly setting up a Modoki Nino. That would favor more storms in the Gulf and generally, more tracks East of the Apps.
  4. John1122
    Getting toward the final fall obs, and boy was today a chiller. 22 this morning. 37 for the high, already down to 28 with the sun down.
  5. John1122
    The NAM did a good job sniffling it out here.
  6. John1122
    It snow showered here late last night and there were a few flurries this morning. Cold this afternoon. Only 34 so far.
  7. John1122
    Just had an 80 percent snow/20 percent rain shower move over.
  8. John1122
    The GFS is insistent that the west coast will continue to replenish water supplies. 6-10+ inches of rain for the northern 2/3rds of California and there been various runs of up to 215 inches of snowfall over the next two weeks from Mammoth to Tahoe ski areas. Unfortunately for us, storms crashing into Northern California to Washington means we are going to remain warm like we did last winter while the west got buried.
  9. John1122
    The PNA/NAO/AO look potentially favorable in early December. Eric Webber noted that December -NAO in strong Niño conditions often led to great patterns later in winter as well.
  10. John1122
    Most of our long range looks are well into December now. Hopefully we can have a better winter than last year, which was an all-time worst here. The first week of the month looks to be near normal temp wise and probably drier than normal, even though CPC favors AN precip.
  11. John1122
    Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
  12. John1122
    It's been around 40 with rain showers here this afternoon and evening. This would have been a snow shower kind of day a month from now.
  13. John1122
    The Purdue big is especially impossible when they refuse to call 3 seconds on him. He was staying in the lane for 7 or 8 seconds. Not to mention tossing Tennessee players around like ragdolls with no calls.
  14. John1122
    Had about 1.55 total today. Steady moderate rain for the better part of 12 hours. Just what the forest floor was needing.
  15. John1122
    Truly heavy rain the past hour. Had missed this at night.
  16. John1122
    Good luck to her. Hopefully the positivity continues. We're all a family here it feels like and I know we all wish you guys the very best.
  17. John1122
    1950/52 were the big ones in the area. My dad talked about snow over the bumpers of his car in 1952. We had 20 inches. Tri-Cities had close to 20 as did Knoxville. Chattanooga was rain though as was Nashville. The '52 storm was an epic paste job but much more localized to East Tennessee/SWVa than 1950. 1950 was a long duration event and it was much colder. It snowed over a foot across a large part of the state, 6-9 inches initially and then more snow for several days afterward with highs in the 10s and 20s and lows in the single digits to near 0. Tennessee and Kentucky played an infamously cold and snowy game that year. In '50, Memphis had 2 inches, 9.2 in Nashville, 2 inches in Huntsville Alabama with a high of 19 and low of 1 that far south. It was actually colder in Huntsville than it was in Tri-Cities for the low. Because it stayed cloudy and snowed every day for several days after in the Tri-Cities/Knoxville and Southeast Ky/SWVa/Mid-State. The crazy thing is that most years in the 50s/60s/70s had measurable snowfall in November. Snow of at least a trace happened every year in the 50's in November. Outside of '50/'52, 2 inches fell in 1956 and 3.5 in 1959. 1960 had none, '61, '62 had half inch events. ''63 had a 2.5 inch event. '66 had an 8 inch event and a 2 inch event. The 8 inch event was November 2nd. the 2 incher was at the end of the month. '68 had a 3 inch and 2 inch event. '69 had a 3 inch event. It was 1973 before a snowless November hit again. In 1974 there was a 2 inch event mid-month. 75/76/77 all had multi-inch events. 1978 was snow free. 1993/1994 was the only back to back snow free November years from 1940-1994 (we did get 3 inches on Halloween 1993 but it stopped snowing around 9pm.) And by that I mean snow of at least a dusting. Then the 2000s hit and November snow just went "poof". None form 2000-2005. 2006 we had half an inch. November has mostly been hard times since 2006.
  18. John1122
    I posted that and it literally started pouring.
  19. John1122
    There was a fire near me today. My cousin lost a van and outbuilding. The rural fire service and Forestry got it out before it could take off. It was on the edge of about 35000 acres of dry woods. The rain was almost non-existent.
  20. John1122
    Hopefully the 00z GFS is correct. Way more rain next week than it had been showing and some snow showers for most of us.
  21. John1122
    Hoping the GFS itself is wrong, as it's the driest by a decent margin, over the next 10 days.
  22. John1122
    A few maps from NOAA. Not sure why they left December off. All in all it looks like Mod/Strong Nino's lean slightly towards more snowy for most of us except West Tennessee and that happens a little more than half the time in this data set for most of us. So really, it looks like a 50/50 situation for most of the Valley. The far eastern areas/western NC have a bit better odds of more robust snow chances.
  23. John1122
    Not as wild as the ride was on 18z but pretty close at 0z.
  24. John1122
    Happy hour indeed on the 18z. Rain systems and....I'm sure you all saw it.
  25. John1122
    I picked up .48 inches of rain and it was still misting enough to use windshield wipers as I headed to Knoxville. There's a lot of nice color still on the trees down here. My trees are 90 percent bare. The mist dried up around the Clinch River bridge in Anderson County.
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