John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The GEFS joins the camp of ensembles with more qpf than the op. The snow mean is as good or better than 18z for some areas.
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I'm hoping to salvage 2-3 inches here. I think 40 and south will be okay for 3 to 5+
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GFS down about .10 across the board. Hopefully things stabilize. It makes no sense for a potent, deepening low to track along the gulf and for it to not produce more precip. If it was 35 degrees with bad 850s that same low strength/track would produce 1.5 inches of qpf.
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It's rare to see ensembles with more QPF than the op but the Euro was and the ICON ensembles are pretty similar in QPF. Usually just by their nature of having to incorporate a few misses, they are drier than their ops.
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Everything is moving faster too. It's arriving earlier and getting out of dodge.
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I expect the GFS to be weaker and south. It did the same for a run last year when the Euro put out the super weak solution I posted earlier.
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The ICON is 1mb less deep and 10 miles south and it cut QPF in half. And for some reason it popped a weak high over Savannah and there's a small pocket of snow underneath it with rain everywhere else.
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The RGEM must be busted.
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Unfortunately, the ICON is weakening as it heads east. Good bit less QPF vs 18z over this way.
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I can't remember if it or the late Rufus was supposed to replace the NAM.
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A bit better in West Tennessee at 66 vs 72 at 18z.
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The ICON is a little more beefy in Arkansas than it was at 18z.
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The FV3 was really wound up at hr 60. Snow was reaching East TN and it was at 1004mb south of Louisiana.
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I think so with that path and a deepening storm. It increased QPF in northern Kentucky by .2/.3 in some spots through 78, but only by around .1 in Tennessee.
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I actually still think that's a very low QPF output for the area with a deepening low on that track. It vastly improved the precip shield into Kentucky, tossing qpf up into Ohio when it was dry at 18z over northern Kentucky, but it didn't increase QPF as much in Tennessee.
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So far the NAM is warmer with a bit more QPF.
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NAM is amped up. May be mixing issues for some here. Definitely for the gulf coast states.
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The NAM looks like it's going to be a pretty good run.
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It's better/sharper at 500 than the 18z op was but not as good as the GFS was for instance.
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The 18z Euro was late with some northern stream energy. The other models drop it in across Oklahoma, the Euro dropped it in across Tennessee. The system comes out less organized/strong on the Euro and the 850 low is weak.
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0z HRRR looks pretty similar to where the 18z GFS was at the same time.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Tennessee is playing like a turd in the punch bowl Euro run. -
I believe basically 5-7 in the Mid-State and 3 to 5 in West Tennessee as well.
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8 to 12 inches Plateau and up the Central Valley of East TN. Far east areas had downsloping issues. When the storm was 42 hours from hitting Memphis the Euro got the track correct but the qpf was about 60 percent of what fell. The RGEM was probably best on it if I recall correctly, and the ICON was close too.
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This was the Euro last January while every model was showing a big hitter in Tennessee. The map here is through 126, but the storm was already in NAM/RGEM range at this time. The Euro suddenly went south and basically whiffed. It spent several cycles trying to recover and eventually did with the path but never with the QPF.
