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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Dusting here with steady snow falling. Not even showing on radar here. With dealing with flow snow in my area only pretty heavy stuff shows up on radar.
  2. John1122
    Heavier bands have covered some roads in my area too, even in southern Campbell at lower elevations. Multiple trees down across the county too. Was a potent cold front.
  3. John1122
    Steady snow falling now. Looks like even far western areas are seeing streamers.
  4. John1122
    I'd guess it reaches the valley areas. Probably earlier than forecast too. My point forecast said 10pm. It switched before 5pm here. Wind has now knocked out the power here.
  5. John1122
    Second the wind Holston referred to. Its gusting over 30 here, especially during snow showers. Just drove across town in a sideways shower.
  6. John1122
    Switched to snow here. Looks like a break then more precip West of here.
  7. John1122
    The RGEM has in the past been decently skilled with the Northern stream activity. It has the 1st event Wednesday into Thursday. The next isn't in range for it yet.
  8. John1122
    There's a possibility of convective snow showers with these disturbances. If you get under one you can see very heavy snow and strong wind for brief periods of time. The GFS advertises some flakes basically statewide.
  9. John1122
    A series of clippers looks likely, they are notoriously fickle in the area. Earlier the Saturday clipper was showing up for West Tennessee but now looks like it's shifted east. As always the higher up the better. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Smokies end up with over a foot when it's all said and done. The Plateau could get a few inches as well. Crossville to my area seems to be in the 1-3 inch range through Saturday. As always it will depend on timing and surface temps. Night would be much better.
  10. John1122
    2012 ended up being the lowest summer ice extent on record due to a very unfavorable pattern that developed in spring and summer over the Arctic. 2012 at this time of year wasn't remotely the lowest ice extent on record. We are slightly ahead of 2012 right now and overall this winter has seen gains in Arctic ice that easily outpaced average. Currently sea is is ahead of 2019 on this date, well ahead of 2018 on this date, well ahead of 2017 on this date, well ahead of 2016 on this date, ahead of 2015 on this date, ahead of 2014 on this date, roughly tied with 2013 on this date, ahead of 2011 on this date, roughly tied with 2010, behind 2009 and 2008, ahead of 2007, ahead of 2006, ahead of 2005, behind 2004-2001. So in the last 20 years we are currently ahead on Arctic sea ice vs 14 of the 20 years. So the +AO has done pretty good work in the Arctic this year.
  11. John1122
    GFS and Canadian are both feet in with the Northern stream. The Euro is less impressed. The Euro hasn't been good with the southern stream beyond 48 hours this year. Not had any notable Northern stream stuff to judge.
  12. John1122
    Looks like 10-20 degrees BN for temps February 25th-29th. Opens a window for some possible northern stream clipper or flow snow. Been a rare thing this year.
  13. John1122
    I'd like to see an event with temps around 26-29 instead of 32/33. BL temps always rule the roost. Even being at 32 vs 34 is huge. Maybe not in the cards for the rest of the season though. Today did make me appreciate just how hard it snowed in April 1987 and in a couple of other April events I had. My accumulation today came in two waves when very heavy snow fell at over an inch per hour rates. Less than that and it just snowed on top of the snow but it was melting from underneath at an equal or greater rate of the snow falling. I had a 3 inch event in April 1997 or 1998 when I got all 3 inches in 1.5 hours of silver dollars. April 1987 was basically 12 hours of silver dollars. We had that today but in shorter bursts. I had .30 QPF today. Looks like some areas around Knoxville towards Morristown had much more. Close to an inch in some places. I wish I could have given you guys my temps.
  14. John1122
    wrong thread.
  15. John1122
    If the Euro jumps on board tonight I'm going to hope for an inch. If not I'll expect snow showers with no accumulations and hope I'm wrong. It's amazing how many times I've been too far north the last few years.
  16. John1122
    MRX rolling with the Euro based on their snow map. Can't really blame them.
  17. John1122
    It was a Tuesday-Wedneday timeframe. Around Feb 11th and 12th I think.
  18. John1122
    This is the MRX discussion from when Robert made the call about enhanced snow over East Tennessee in 2014. I don't quite think it is the same set up as here.
  19. John1122
    I won't trust it or really any model until 24 hours or less out.
  20. John1122
    The NAM is a state length slammer.
  21. John1122
    Why can't the Euro show the NAM solution?? I do not expect this to happen and hope I'm very wrong.
  22. John1122
    After the 00z suite, pretty sure I'm out of chances. Not willing to hang my hat on the ICON. But there may be some flakes in the air from Memphis to Tueplo to Huntsville to Chattanooga.
  23. John1122
    Front end thump comes and goes for our area. It's looking good for southern areas. Crazy how those areas average the same or less snow than our general area but have just crushed our forum area year after snowwise. No idea why it's gotten so much harder to snow specifically in the Tennessee valley but other areas of the South seem to get about their normal amount every year.
  24. John1122
    Frontogenesis at 700mb in purple. Also waa into the snowgrowth zone aiding moisture transport
  25. John1122
    The NAM 2 of the last 3 runs has shown very favorable frontogenesis setting up over various parts of Tennessee, when it does the precip is here and in a good amount. The frontgenesis 700mb maps aren't out yet for the 18z run but I suspect we will see it here when they come out.
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