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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    There's so many microclimates here. I wonder if southerly flow is somehow going on there due to terrain or something?
  2. John1122
    European basically held serve with 1-3ish from around Nashville and East. Now cast basically from here on out.
  3. John1122
    The 4z RAP, which is a pretty good model under 8-10 hours with some events, is starting to really key on West Tennessee out in its later range. It appears to be dropping heavy snow under its heavy returns but rain all around it. Creeping down here. DP has shot up. Wet bulb is holding around 32.
  4. John1122
    The 03z RAP that is starting now is also slightly south and less organized looking than the actual radar.
  5. John1122
    Current radar looks better organized/further north than the 00z NAM had it around this timeframe. Probably 50 or so miles north of where it was depicted in Arkansas.
  6. John1122
    Down to 36 now. Not sure how low I'll go before the clouds thicken and the temps stop falling or even rise.
  7. John1122
    I hope we can thread the needle and get a true near forum wide slider. It's a sad world when we get a weak gulf low with overrunning and a 1045+ HP in Iowa and it's not a slam dunk in February. That said, surely QPF won't be an issue. We've constantly out performed short range modeling on QPF for the last several months. Including the first system this week missing by an average of .25-.30 to low imby with that one.
  8. John1122
    37 degrees, humidity rising. Hoping for 2 inches but expecting 1 or less.
  9. John1122
    This station is a few miles from me and 200 feet higher up.
  10. John1122
    I noticed the dp is also 24 in Crossville.
  11. John1122
    High thin cirrus clouds here. Temp is 42.4 degrees 50 percent humidity and falling. Dew point temp is 24.8.
  12. John1122
    The biggest plus for the NAM regarding precip type is two fold, moisture arrives earlier and its heavier. The GFS is much warmer because it only has light precip. Early arriving moisture is usually a hallmark of overrunning events.
  13. John1122
    The RGEM still wasn't much but it was quite a bit more North and West with precip.
  14. John1122
    The NAM is definitely determined. The weak gulf low is a classic moisture pump that normally avoids a raging warm nose. A big H in Iowa with a weak surface reflection near the gulf is snow event 101 here. The million dollar question as always, is the NAM correct?
  15. John1122
    As we work through yet another in the seemingly endless parade of ridiculously warm winters, this was 5 years ago today.
  16. John1122
    Another full blown Namming of the southern half of the forum basically. NE Miss, Huntsville, Chattanooga and Knoxville into the Smokies clean up with that run. 2-4+ inches.
  17. John1122
    It underperformed by half on today's rain. Hope it does again. There would have been more in the central Eastern valley areas but there were precip type issues.
  18. John1122
    This may mean nothing, on the globals at 00z Monday my 24 hour rain ending at 1am tonight was .25 on the Euro, .3 on the GFS and .6 on the Canadian. On the meso models it was .25 in the NAM and .35 in the RGEM. I just checked my rain gauge for the night. .57 fell between around 12am last night and now. The Canadian models we much heavier to the West. The other models were too far south and east with the heavier precip.
  19. John1122
    If the Euro jumps on board tonight I'm going to hope for an inch. If not I'll expect snow showers with no accumulations and hope I'm wrong. It's amazing how many times I've been too far north the last few years.
  20. John1122
    MRX rolling with the Euro based on their snow map. Can't really blame them.
  21. John1122
    It was a Tuesday-Wedneday timeframe. Around Feb 11th and 12th I think.
  22. John1122
    This is the MRX discussion from when Robert made the call about enhanced snow over East Tennessee in 2014. I don't quite think it is the same set up as here.
  23. John1122
    I won't trust it or really any model until 24 hours or less out.
  24. John1122
    The NAM is a state length slammer.
  25. John1122
    Why can't the Euro show the NAM solution?? I do not expect this to happen and hope I'm very wrong.
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