John1122

I believe 6 years ago yesterday it snowed about 1.5 inches while I was in Hixon. It's the only time I've seen a flake there. Little system worked almost due east across the southern border.

06z RGEM is back to being a big hitter. The GFS is as well. The NAM is nice and a little further south. MRX is riding with the SREF. Which we all know will suddenly jump to 10 inch plumes at some point.

The Euro is odd to me in that you're very very rarely going to see frozen along the gulf coast with temperatures that warm here. At 210 its 29 in Knoxville and 29 in Columbus Georgia 400+ miles south. At 216 it's 31 in Knoxville to Trj and thats some of the warmest temperatures in the entire south on either side of the Apps. Anything is possible but I just don't see it playing out that way. To get cold down to the GOM and have frozen precip there you usually have to be in the 10s and single digits here.

That 1951 event was just a monster winter storm in the mid state. It hit from the Plateau west. My grandfather recorded 1.6 inches of ice and 3 inches of snow from it. And that was less than half what Nashville received. He recorded a temperature of 27 degrees the morning of February 1st and 12 by 6pm. Nashville was 10-15 degrees colder. The most amazing thing was the far east side was warm, Knoxville was mid 40s into the day on February 1st and crashed as soon as the precip stopped. Tri was in the 60s. Must have been downsloping. Tri fell from 62 degrees to 13 by 11:59 February 1st. 49 degrees in a day has to be one of the biggest drops there ever.

0z GFS is still a big hitter for most of the eastern valley.

It actually snowed on East Tennessee at 18z.

We will see where the 0z modeling goes the rest of the way. The RGEM is usually better with Northern stream systems vs Southern stream systems.

Swing and a miss for the RGEM that time. Nails North Carolina instead.

There's nothing better than snow followed by Arctic air. Throw back to my childhood there. We used to stay cold and snowy for days on end. I remember one 2 week period in January in the late 70s where it snowed at least some every day or two.

Ratios will be your enemy this weekend most likely. It's looking like about 8:1 along the Plateau at hr 60 but it drops quickly down to 3:1or 4:1 over Knoxville and valley area. That's sleet ratios.

I was looking at notable Mid Tenn weather and found quite a few -15 or below all time records in February. Some of those places may have been colder in 1985 but lost reporting stations. Even more record breaking winter events in the mid-state happened in February.

I'll make this note as we all hope for the best. Models have performed poorly with northern stream events this year with too much snow, and have underperformed on southern stream events as a rule. So we can hopefully count on that again.

More impressive than those lows would be the highs under 5 so widespread. That is rare to see any time of year, very rare for Mid February.

Models struggle with how far eastward cold makes it in setups like the GFS is snowing. I'd probably shift the sleet and zr areas southeastward by a good bit.

Tropical counts mixing and sometimes very cold rain as snow accumulation I've noticed.

Had a snow and sleet shower earlier. Temp is only 34 degrees, another day with a busted high temp prediction.

Possible reason for the shift to Tennessee looking better.

Both versions of the GFS are like that now. I suspect they are just flat wrong but maybe the 12z guidance will further illuminate things.

Well, the GFS suddenly looks like the Euro from a few days ago for the weekend storm.

Look at it this way, it's 200 miles north of where it was on last night's run already this far out.

Virtually all of this is from February 12th - 14th.

The GFS is further north and weaker with a long duration valley wide snow event starting Feb 12th.

The Canadian is cooking up something early next week too.

Two systems produce this and another is loaded and building in Texas.

I really hope the V16 is on something besides model crack, it's very snowy over the next week, basically forum wide.