John1122

I'm most baffled by their statement that there isn't model consensus for the event. It's literally on every single model, the only inconsistency in the modeling is probably from Athens south. They are issuing a Winter Weather Advisory, continuing their very long tradition of not issuing a Winter Storm Warning outside the mountains unless circumstances are just slam dunk dire.

HRRR comes in strong well back into the mid-state. MRX has mentioned wanting hi-res models on board. Be curious to see what they issue. Virtually all modeling is showing Winter Storm Warning criteria for their Plateau zones. Same for OHX.

The Euro and GFS remain on separate planets regarding the upcoming cold or no cold. One will have to flinch soon. The GFS move to cold begins in less than a week.

Euro has less warm nose and gets the mid state in the game.

Possibly, but to me that just shows the potential of the pattern being modeled. The exact snow amounts and ice amounts and locations are a long way from being known. That said, both get 3-5 inches from that run. I doubt anyone would turn it down!

If the GFS comes to pass we may all be ready. Still has highs in the single digits and teens and lows below 0 for many in the region for days on end.

The snow and ice lines will move back and forth and likely won't be known until within 24-48 hours if even then. But there's a lot of cold and a lot of precip flying around over the next 10-14 days.

Actually fairly warm rain. It's a very sharp divide on either side of the front.

Long duration and slow buildup is the worst case scenario.

Winter event for western areas starts in about 4 days or so per the Canadian. One wave moves through then another comes along. Massive West Tennessee ice storm.

GFS still honking wide spread frozen events over the next week. Basically the entire forum will see some kind of frozen precip over the next 7-8 days and the cold will be stiff. At one point there's snow falling with Temps in the upper single digits and low 10s. Exactly where will not likely be determined until it's falling. Especially the freezing rain/sleet possibilities. But the cold is almost always further south and east than modeling indicates when they happen.

GFS was still strong on warm nose but less strong than 18z. Sharp gradient with 5 inches in Knoxville and bare dirt in south Loudon and down 75.

The bullseye is to be feared.

They both rocked my area. I'm universally in 4+ inches across modeling. What can go wrong 24 hours out??

Still wild blue yonder range for the HRRR but good to see it coming off throwing out .1 qpf here.

Not that the ground is warm at all because we've just not had any warm weather lately, but it's already frosty and down to 30 here. My grandpa always said if it clouds up in a frost look for snow.

The last of the snow melted off this evening. If we can get some down before midnight tomorrow my snow on the ground streak will stay alive.

MRX mentions the GFS being on an island and probably too warm with the warm nose.

Unless there's a big shift, I'll be shocked if Oneida gets less snow than Knoxville. That would be extremely rare in the set up shown.

Odds are 0z is wintery, then back a few more times. I remember noting in the Christmas storm thread or leading up to it that the Euro had to be right at some point because it showed every possible solution you can have in Tennessee in late December in the days leading into the event. It's flipped around significantly with this storm. Sadly the Para GFS is down at the most crucial time. It was on a hot streak. They probably discovered it was doing better than the Euro at 500 and tinkered with it to make it worse.

MRX was surprisingly unbullish for snowfall in my area.

That said, the HRRR is at the end of it's range on the extended 18z version where it's really really unreliable. It currently shows MBY with .1 precip from this with all other modeling showing .5-.7ish.

I got NAM'd out the wazoo there but still don't trust it at all. MRX is waiting on the HRRR which is apparently the only model they really trust.

The Euro has been doing the flip flop quite often this year beyond D5. It started in late November and has continued it throughout winter.

My annual trek to Chattanooga has been cancelled. Look for increased odds of snow south and east of 40 regardless of model output.