John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The beastly band should be arriving soon. So far the little that's moved overhead here hasn't reached the ground.
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Borderline temps most likely, leading to them just not being sure. 1 degree will have huge consequences. The ground itself is no issue. It was well below freezing across the area this morning, it didn't get very warm. It's dark. Rates should be heavy. We are in the middle of prime snow climo for Tennessee. If snow falls it will stick.
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Blues moving overhead on radar. Nothing has reached the ground here yet. The low dp is coming up though.
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6z is 1am currently. 2 when we spring forward. So you don't have to stay up as late as you thought!
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When it is down you can get a close idea from looking at where the HRRR initializes.
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Normally here. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/upper/ But they went down a few minutes ago now I can't get it to pull up the current map.
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First round of precip looks like it is going to pass south of me. 850s look a little colder than the NAM forecast.
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37/25 here. Steady falling Temps. Kinda surprised by it.
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Surprised you're that high. Crossville is only 22 and I know you're just a few miles from there as the crow and weather flies.
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The long range is showing the potential of the pattern if nothing else. Much better than endless warmth or cutters like last year and the year before.
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39/22 currently. After reading the MRX disco I think it's going to snow here. It was actually nicely detailed but I did have to read it a few times.
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I feel like the Euro ingested my trip and that got it all wonky. Now that it's getting to realize it was canceled its coming back to normal.
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Went out to change the batteries in one of my weather station sensors and found that all my snow hadn't melted off . My grandma would always say it was sticking around for the next one to visit.
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They just reissued the advisory for here though their zfp is winter storm warning criteria.
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Now my zone updated to this. Tonight A chance of rain or snow likely in the evening, then snow or rain or light sleet after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation up to 4 inches. Lows around 30. Light winds. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
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The point forecast actually shows colder lows down 75 towards Athens than for Knox and Anderson Co. 32 vs 33. Point forecasts aren't usually all that accurate but interesting that it some how arrived at that.
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OHX expanded their advisory area one tier of counties to the west but stayed with 1-3 inch totals for their CWA advisory area.
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The SPS has disappeared from the Knoxville to Chattanooga area. Will see soon what replaces it.
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I hope so, I'm thinking 2-4 is probably more realistic due to ratios.
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If looking for changes to the advisory, MRX lowered my snow totals in the ZFP from 2-4 to 1-3, so check yours vs earlier today to see if they've changed at all and it will probably give a clue to their updated thinking.
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The EPS has a banana high set up going at the time the OP is a cutter. I would guess it will trend away from that and probably keep trending colder. The OP is warmer than the ensembles and that is often the case, the OPs are usually more extreme one way or another.
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The Euro tries to cut at the end of it's run, even though massive blocking is in place. That has shown up before this year, it didn't happen. I want to say our early January snow event was a cutter on the Euro initially.
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41 currently, after 23 briefly overnight before some warming towards morning. Still nicely cooled ground should making laying quick for all of us.
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The 06z GFS is insane.
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The 09z RAP bumped totals across the eastern rim, Plateau and Knoxville area vs the 03z run. Has a monster downsloping element in NETN. Roane/Western Knox went from virtually nothing to around 2 inches.
