John1122

Very rare sight, the entire forum area is under winter weather products this morning except for far NE Arkansas. Looks like every county in Tennessee is under a WWA or WSW. In addition to the not from above, MRX disco did mention they may need to expand the WSW to the west.

Lots of warnings and advisories issued by MRX. They are basically saying this is an East based event. Winter Storm Warning for areas East of Knox. Have my area with less snow than Knox and central Valley areas. Possible for sure but it definitely doesn't line up with most modeling for the Plateau vs the valley.

The final 06z NAM map may quite literally get everyone who posts here. Memphis, NE Arkansas, SWVa, North Miss, North Alabama, Chattanooga, SE Kentucky, we all got snow with it.

Under 24 hours and the NAM is also holding steady. The exact areas of heaviest snow will move around some but it looks like we are all in line for fast and furious thumping. I expect the issuance of winter products with the morning package

I will be stunned if they aren't but man I sure hope they are right or even 50 percent right.

This will be an unusual event as far as days leading into the potential snow. About as close as I can remember right off the bat was March into April 1987. Temps were 68-77 for highs from around March 20th to March 31st. It did get cold a couple days before the snow hit. However the day of the snow was 50 for the high. Temps crashed that afternoon and heavy rain changed to heavy snow and 8-12 inches fell in the area. I don't know if we will see those dynamics with this system but that was huge silver dollar sized flakes that just ripped down for several hours. It coated the ground quickly. We had about 2 or 3 inches in a late April event that was similar as far as heavy rates quickly overcoming ground temps. Rates basically trump all. Especially with a lower sun angle or at night.

Its rare to see NW Tennessee and NE Tennessee included in a snow cover map. It's slightly more common to see Memphis and Bristol with snow from a clown.

I've found it best to take those clown maps and shave off 40-60 percent for wet snows that aren't falling onto frozen ground. Sometimes you'll get over performance and they'll match up. You can snow board, clean it off and add the measurements up and you'll get closer to the clowns.

Depth is estimated taking into account compacting, ground temps, etc.

If we get low amp 8-1 into the heart of winter (Jan 15th-Feb 20th) I like our odds for more cold in the future.

GFS has ensemble support. Big uptick.

If the RAP was legit we'd have one of the best Memphis to Bristol events in many years.

It sounds counterintuitive but having wet ground when it's warmer actually aids in snow fall but if it approaches the rates modeled it will pile up and fast.

Thundersnow to get that rate.

RGEM steady as she goes. Hope it's correct. It's usually good with Northern stream energy but less so with the southern stream.

06z 3k is pretty nice for roughly the eastern half of the valley region from just east of Nash and points east. Brings some snow to most everyone though. Way better than it's lower res version put out.

Euro wasn't very enthusiastic. The 06z NAM bounced back from 00z a but. The 48hr HRRR at 06 was pretty good for quite a but of the area.

GFS remains in the thumper category. Looks like the NAM may be on an island on the North American modeling. Of course the NAM beyond 36-48 hours isn't great.

Rgem wasn't bad at all. Not quite 18z but a good forum wide event.

Spent part of the day in NE Alabama. Thickly humid there and upper 60s. Lots of rain showers off and on. Not sure how that may affect instability, if that even matters in this case. I assume tomorrow would be the biggest potential.

Canadian was good area wide.

The RGEM was about as good as it can get for about as much of the forum as possible.

GGem isn't bad for most of us and the Euro got slightly better too. Not sure how much will stick but a lot of us should see some flakes Sunday and Sunday night.

The GFS looks more what I expect. I believe the NAM is out to lunch. RGEM is probably the best for us all at this point. Still hoping to see the flakes flying for only the 2nd time this winter. It's tough all over though. LeConte has 1.1 inches this snow season. They normally have recorded around 3 feet by now.

That's the kind of game that makes you wonder seriously if the officials are paid off.