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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    As is usually the case in NW flow events here, the snow starts really coming down about an hour and a half or two before sunset. It's peppering down out there currently. 22 degrees. Around 1.5 inches so far today.
  2. John1122
    I'd take a repeat of the 14 incher we got in around Valentine's Day 1985. We even went back below zero a few days later.
  3. John1122
    NW flow is rolling along pretty well here. Temp is down to 25 degrees.
  4. John1122
    Had an inch, some melting, back to snowing nickels now, 29 degrees.
  5. John1122
    Big quarter+ sized flakes rolling, 3/4ths of an inch so far. Looks like it's about to let up, unfortunately. Like Silas, it's snowing harder than it did with the last system.
  6. John1122
    It's pretty much ripping here now. Quarters and nickels.
  7. John1122
    Dusting here as well. 31 degrees and falling.
  8. John1122
    Looks like the CAM are leaning heavily into downsloping SW VA and they are a major player in the NBM inside 24 hours.
  9. John1122
    Starting to fall back into the 30s now. Probably the warmest it's going to be until Friday or Saturday.
  10. John1122
    It has different weights for different models and different time frames. Basically all ensemble models including the SREF. The major op models. The CAMs/NAM nest.
  11. John1122
    My snow didn't melt off in the rain. I've had snow on the ground since Jan 5th. I should manage to make it until at least the 26th or 27th if not longer. Barring a return to some of the modeling looks, this will be the first time in my life with 20+ days of snow on the ground in January that didn't feature double digit snowfall totals, generally 17-24 inches.
  12. John1122
    They must have just updated.
  13. John1122
    MRX doesn't include anyone else in the WWA but issues an extreme cold watch. Sort of surprises me as most of the CAMs show 1-2 inches for their Northern Plateau counties.
  14. John1122
    MRX finally releases their disco. Word salad that says little and kinda ignores/doesn't mention modeling and their own graphic they released yesterday showing 1-2 inches across a good portion of the area.
  15. John1122
    The GFS gives Knoxville 2 inches Sunday.
  16. John1122
    OHX disco says the NBM says not much snow in the Cumberland Plateau, so they aren't issuing any WWA there, even though hi-res models are picking up on additional energy that would extend snow into the afternoon. Then they note they are punting it to the next shift. MRX AFD is MIA as of 4:30 but I assume they will also roll with the NBM.
  17. John1122
    JKL talks about intense snowfall rates and a connection from Lake Michigan for their CWA, especially around the Cumberlands/Black Mountains. They said meso winter storm warnings or even snow squall warnings may be needed with visibilities down to .1 miles. They said the secondary arctic front moving through on Sunday would see omega values ideally centered in the DGZ and steep low-level lapse rates. Some of that just reaches into parts of Tennessee on the RGEM. It delivers 3-4 inches around my area and Scott County extended almost all the way back to Clarksville.
  18. John1122
    MRX with a Winter Storm Watch for the mountains and a WWA for a couple of SWVA counties. JKL with a Winter Weather Advisory for their entire CWA. Surprised MRX didn't put an advisory out for at least the horseshoe counties since the NAM nest is giving advisory level snowfall. The RGEM just came close to Winter Storm criteria for parts of the Northern Plateau.
  19. John1122
    We begin February in the ice box per the Euro.
  20. John1122
    Way down the road, but the Euro rolled out a huge winter storm at D 12.
  21. John1122
    The couple of spots in the area where the NAM blossomed some precip Tuesday morning were 20:1 ratios, it dropped a couple of 4 inch dollops.
  22. John1122
    The NAM is trying for us. Granted it's often overamped when it starts getting a system in range. But that would likely have been a big run if it went out to 120.
  23. John1122
    It's the NAM at range but it's much further north initially with the precip vs the GFS/Euro etc with the Tuesday system. By Tuesday at 11am the storm isn't too far off shore of the Gulf Coast and precip is in Mid-Tn.
  24. John1122
    The HRRR randomly dumps 7 inches in a small strip near the central Plateau with the 06z run. The NAM is increasing totals vs it's prior runs, as is the 3k.
  25. John1122
    Euro came west/north from 12z. Has snow on the Tennessee/NC border. Looks like the Canadian but about 100 miles East.
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