John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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90/10 snow now. It feels like it's almost ready to unload, flake size is getting bigger.
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Temp dropped a degree and I'm back to about 80/20 snow/rain.
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It's often tough to switch back to rain once you get the huge flakes falling like that, as long as the precip is still falling pretty heavily. I'll bet you get a few inches down pretty quickly.
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I'd guess you're good to go for the rest of the event. You're going to rack up I suspect, unless the warm nose MRX mentioned changes you to sleet or freezing rain. I actually started as snow and am now rain/snow mixed. I'd guess 150-200 feet above me is getting moderate snow right now. I wouldn't be surprised if I wasn't rain/snow mixed until noon or later while a few hundred feet away it just piles up. MRX mentioned that there wasn't much left to potentially cool the column any more for hours from now.
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Looks like the blue on radar down in LaFollette is accurate too.
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Snow now falling. I'm at 35 degrees. I must have good upper levels compared to points south of here.
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The HRRR seems to really like 3000 feet or so on Cross Mountain.
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Radar has blue over me but nothing is hitting the ground yet.
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Euro managed to creep west with the next potential event. Still buries NC but has a 3-6+ from the West side of the Plateau East to the mountains. Super cold, high ratio snow if it happens like it was shown.
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Clarksville is snowing at 37.
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Canadian with next weekends system. GFS looked like this at 18z but is suppressed at 0z.
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34.5/32. Probably can't go much lower without precip causing the cooling. It's gonna be eternity waiting on the band behind the low and hoping it holds together as modeled.
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I would think that this one being an under the ocean eruption it probably didn't release as much ash and sulfur into the atmosphere as an eruption of that size otherwise would have. It was comparable in size to Mount Pinatubo which cooled global temps half a C.
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If the upper trough Nashville speaks about holds together longer, more people to the east will do better. They usually collapse when the parent low transfers.
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On days like today, southerly flow, cloudy, saturated atmosphere, the difference isn't as much normally.
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So far, it's overperforming everywhere. Parts of Iowa got 14-15 inches. I believe it had been showing 6-8 there. Unfortunately, past performance doesn't guarantee future success.
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Storms seem to repeat some years. Looks like next weekend is a prime chance for a nice event. The GFS has it. The Euro is suppressed to the south and east of here but Nina climo would suggest just enough Atlantic Ridge to nudge it back our way. If we can cash in tomorrow and get that one, it would be epic. It's great seeing multiple threats of snow inside D10 in the heart of winter. It doesn't get any better outside a nice Christmas snow. QBO dropping in winter is magic.
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The waiting game is on. The hours until snow actually starts is the hard time. Will it, won't it? I hate marginal set ups. I want a Miller A/Slider with 20s forum wide. Not sure where the HRRR had my temperature a few runs ago for this hour, but it's 36/32.
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I didn't look but assume their snow map is computer generated and likely close to the NMB snow map.
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Looks like MRX finally bit on the models here. Hopefully their faith us rewarded. It's drizzling here with a few melty flakes mixed in. I drove up to 2000 feet and it was snowing dime sized flakes. So Hopefully we can get some rate driven cooling.
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Steady light snow falling here now. Can't see Cross Mountain from about 2.5 miles away. At a basketball game and recording Tennessee vs Kentucky.
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MRX lowered my chance of > than 4 inches from 70+ percent to 40ish percent from last night into today. They seem convinced models aren't right here.
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Snow showers this morning at 35 degrees. 8-13 inches here across most modeling as the event is imminent. What could possibly go wrong?
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They finally released the AFD. Cited no winter storm warning here due to uncertainty, though I'm not sure how it's a certainty in parts of SWVA under a warning vs here. They got roasted on the last event when it didn't snow in Knoxville. I think they are gun shy.
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The GFS is just all in. It's either gonna bust wide open or score big. 13 inches imby that run.
