John1122

Updated point forecast. Detailed Forecast Tonight Rain likely before midnight, then snow. Low around 21. Blustery, with a southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north 15 to 20 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Saturday Snow likely, mainly before 9am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 22. Wind chill values between 4 and 9. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

GFS dropped a foot on Hamilton County. That would be awesome. Credit my brother, his daughters started spring break today and they left for Orlando at noon.

I'm hoping that you pull off 3-6 inches. Some models have a streak right over your area of heavy stuff the last several days.

The nowcast/obs rule now. It overperforming in Arkansas during the day is a good sign. Its basically every model vs the NAM right now too it seems.

Managed to hit 32. Should be able to stay there for a couple hours. Will warm up today, but every little bit of ground cooling can't hurt.

The 09z RAP is great for the warned areas in Middle and East Tennessee and it also hits all of NE TN and SWVa with 5+.

No backing down from the 06z GFS. It's about 2x the MRX snow map.

This was on the MRX site in 2016. I remembered putting it in the historical winter thread so I could find it easily. Glad you found that new version.

That must have changed recently.

Point forecast for MBY

No, the criteria is generally always the same in each CWA. It's different in Georgia vs Chattanooga but usually the same for all of MRX's area.

Definitely not common to see Chattanooga in a Winter Storm Warning an NE Tn not.

My forecast updated to now 4-6 tonight and 1-2 Saturday and looks like all but maybe Tri-Cities/SWVA area is now under a WSW. Looks like the downslope/snowhole is being considered there and it's a WWA.

Down to 33 degrees here, I'd like to get down to 32 or lower by sunup just to help give the ground as much advance chilling as possible.

OHX went to a warning for their prior watch areas, 3-6 for the whole block just east of Nashville. Kinda surprised they didn't include Nashville proper in the warning. OHX also noted 40mph winds possible. That's some blizzard like conditions.

There's a lot more civilization that way. If you can get above 3000-3500 feet over that way, you'll probably see huge totals. 12+.

JKL fires off the first Winter Storm Warnings for their KY/VA border counties. 4-6+ in their warned area. Point forecast now says 4-6 Friday night and 1-2 Saturday just across the border in Whitley Co.

NAMs slightly down again. They are basically in line with the Euro. Beast of a storm on there, down to 991 over Western NC, just less QPF than prior runs. Seems to be moving out a little faster on there. Rather than snowing up to 15-18z, it's cutting off around 12-14z.

Looks like I'm around 6-8 inches there. Will see if MRX raises me up from the 2-4 forecast now. Also, based on this, that is Winter Storm Warning criteria from at least Nashville to the mountains and probably Northern Alabama and Northern Georgia, where the criteria is less than here.

03z SREF plumes are the same or even up a bit everywhere except Tri-Cities. Biggest is 7.5-9 from the Plateau to SE KY. 6 inch mean in Nashville. 5+ in Knox. 4+ Memphis and Jackson. 4 around Huntsville. 3.75ish at Tri. 3.5ish around Chattanooga.

Even the UKIE is on-board for a big hitter. It's been pretty dry before that run.

There will likely be some enhanced banding that will just flat blast some areas. That's what happened here the 17th and caused about a 10 mile wide sliver in Eastern Scott and Western Campbell to get 12-18 inches. That band got a quick coating down and let everything else lay quickly.

Another of the hi-res mods.

Looking upstream, Tulsa fell nearly 30 degrees in a few hours on 25-35mph N winds.

Because of the layout of the state it rarely ever verifies but this looks like the best shot in a while.