EasternLI

WPC model diagnostic discussion regarding this event. Just for an idea of what they're looking at. From 130pm : Preference: General model blend (with less weight toward the 12z ECMWF) Confidence: Average The 12z NAM has shifted to the east with its surface low track (when compared to its previous two model cycles), a result of better agreement concerning the timing of the phasing of the northern and southern stream short wave into a broad cyclonic flow over the northern part of the US. The 12z GFS has remained consistent with its previous two model cycles in keeping the surface low further east. Though it has been trending slowly eastward with its depiction of the surface low track, the 12z ECMWF remains the westernmost member of the guidance envelope (joined with the 00z ECMWF ensemble mean). The general model trend has been to phase the northern and southern stream a bit later, resulting on a more easterly surface low track. Given this trend, a general model blend is preferred, though at this point less weight should be given the 12z ECMWF because of its surface low track (and precipitation swath). Because there is still some variability concerning when the phasing occurs, and considering the sensitivity of the forecast to that variability, confidence remains average.

Based on radar, I'm just wrapping it up over here. That's going to mean 3.2" for this event as a final. That's now the largest snow event of the season here. That brings me to 10.5" for the season.

8AM I have 2.8" light snow still falling for now.

Now that would be something. Something like that would just rake the whole area.

7AM snow continues for now. 2.1" OTG for this event thus far. This looks to be the biggest snow since November 15th here.

I was looking forward to a warm up after mid March. The EPS now wants to build a +PNA and dump a trough in the east for that period. LOL

Nice dump of snow ongoing here in Riverhead at 6AM. 1" OTG

I never really understood why it always has to be one model that has it right while the others are wrong. This isn't rooting for a sports team here. These are peices of guidance. A EURO/GFS blend doesn't look so bad for most in here does it?

Had a period of very light snow early this morning adding up to 0.1". Which bumps my seasonal total to 7.3".

I've been a little busy so I'm just trying to catch up now. I measured 0.4" for this event in Riverhead. So that brought me to 7.2" for the season.

Riverhead, this event delivered 1.1" before the rain/drizzle. Thankfully not much in the way of ice. That makes it 6.8" for the season.

Those NWS maps are in line with what the EURO is showing. If you're wondering what the EURO is showing, that's basically it.

Today's edition is advertising a warm up mid March when the EPO flips positive. Along with a +AO and +NAO. Hope it's right with that. Seems to want to reload the EPO going into April though. Hope that's wrong. I'm ready for some warmer weather.

https://buffalonews.com/2017/01/22/blizzard-77-still-measuring-rod-massive-snowstorms/

0.1" of sleet last night. Whatever. But I suppose it counts. So that's now 5.7" for the season.

Winter 2018-19

It was a cool little event. I was anticipating like an inch before a washout. It ended up being a mostly snow to sleet situation. The sleet really adds some staying power. I was surprised to see how much was still on the ground this morning.

This event ended up delivering a 2.1" total over here. I found the few hours of a mostly snow grain with a little sleet mixture pretty cool looking. It seemed like a fog out there. This brings my 2018-19 season snow total to 5.6"

Oh yeah, I remember it all too well. Those were the days of doing backflips for a 3-6" event.

What a crap winter this has been. Even the terrible 80's years had offered up more snow to date than this year has over here. After 3" on Nov. 15th, I have a grand total of 3.5" for the season to date. Totally overdue though, after the run of years over the last decade plus.

Member E7 looked like more fun than the control. But seriously, I could see why next weekend could potentially offer up something. I don't think it's some fantasy idea. When the PV pulls away, that often times can leave a window for something. 12z eps isn't honking or anything, but there is some action off the coast during that time in the members. Just thinking out loud here, have to see what happens this week first.

Yeah, that's the hope I think. Those warm waters parked around Indonesia have been problematic in my opinion. Ideally, we want some cooler waters there with the warmer waters in the nino regions. Except nino 1+2, we want those cooler as well. Overall warm waters everywhere (anomaly wise) doesn't have the same effect. Like it was discussed the other day.

Nice post. I can't see the chi200 EPS version, but the GEFS seems to be heading in that direction. It looks like it might be trying to set up a proper Aleutian low at the end as well. Hopefully that's the right idea. I also find it interesting that NOAA never declared this an official el nino. They still have it as enso neutral. So maybe we should be thinking of this year more as a warm neutral?

Exactly, and well said. Basically where my thought process has been. Strongly agree with the bolded.