EasternLI

Nice outlook Isotherm. I think it's even more optimistic than what I was thinking. Hopefully it verifies.

Some great points. Makes a lot of sense. Perhaps a good cautionary tale of using any older analog years. The arctic sea ice issue is interesting. Something I would like to do some more reading on. I think it's one area that is gaining popularity in research. The QBO has had a good amount of attention recently.

Oh I am in full agreement on your point here. My post was in reference to the tropical pacific warm pool. Which can drive a favorable winter pattern for us. Instead, the models are locked in on the Indian ocean. Which can drive a terrible winter pattern for us. But the current state of the QBO gives support to what the models are showing IRT that. As far as the North Pacific warm pool. My thinking is that it's more of a indicator of what the pattern had been. Not necessarily a driver of much. Maybe more of a modulator? I just feel like those anomalies can be bullied around by what the tropics are doing as that is where the most energy (heat) resides. I feel like this winter is going below average snow maybe way below, much above average temp. Not seeing much for winter fans to be excited about TBH.

Thanks. There's certainly a risk of a very warm winter ahead. I'm not overly fond of anything that I'm seeing at this time. The Pacific warm pool (associated with the PMM) could help us out, but will it? That's one area of very warm water. The other is the Indian ocean, which is what models are keying on right now. Interestingly, the MJO to -NAO connection is strongest in La Niña years. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL084683 The NAO− regime teleconnection via the stratosphere from MJO phases 7–8 is most enhanced and occurring latest during La Niña years, while it is suppressed during El Niño years. Unfortunately, it seems that the QBO is working against us here being westerly. Suppressing convection where we would prefer to have it. https://journals.ametsoc.org/mwr/article/147/1/389/103189 As MJO events propagate eastward over the MC during boreal winter, static stability anomalies increase in magnitude over the eastern MC and WP. That is, static stability anomalies decrease during QBOEM and increase during QBOWM, corresponding to a less stable atmosphere and increased RMM amplitudes over the eastern MC and WP (RMM phases 5 and 6) during QBOEM, and a more stable atmosphere and decreased RMM amplitudes over the same region during QBOWM.

This is what the GEFS and EPS is showing for VP200. The new EPS weaklies today continues this look right into December. Research says that Indian ocean convection will drive a strong polar vortex. Last year is a great example of that occurring. I didn't give that enough respect. So expecting a ++AO La Nina as of now unless something changes here and quickly.

The west pacific warm pool is of some interest this year IMO. It's something that I will certainly be paying attention to in looking at the sst trends in that area in the month ahead. This relates to the discussion of the PMM in the discussion thread. There's potentially some optimistic outcomes that could (or could not lol) stem from this as it relates to the winter ahead. Some recent research has shown that forcing in this area can actually drive an Aleutian low +PNA pattern during winter. Which in turn can act to cause a weak SPV. It should be interesting to monitor this area moving forward. Nonlinear response of Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex to the Indo–Pacific warm pool (IPWP) Niño https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-49449-7 During boreal winter, anomalous SST warming associated with IPWP Niño can excite NH extratropical teleconnections that project onto the positive phase of the Pacific–North America (PNA) pattern in mid–high latitudes, intensifying the upward propagation of planetary waves into the stratosphere and, in turn, warming and weakening the NH stratospheric vortex41. Note that the wave pattern excited by IPWP Niño is located further west than the PNA pattern, a fact that may be related to the different wave source locations from that of ENSO.

@bluewave That's very interesting about the PMM October pattern. I didn't even think to look at that for some reason. I remember we discussed that in the past. I found that particular pattern interesting when it was first showing up on ensembles. So I dug into some Nina years to look into it a little. I had some difficulty finding anything. Which I guess suggests the rarity of it. I see 1995 was brought up a few pages back. That was actually the closest match I could find. Albeit, it didn't happen until the end of the month that year. Therefore the composite for the month as a whole looks different. Interestingly, it's almost a mirror image of the PMM pattern composite you posted.

Yeah, I've seen a couple papers that attributed it to the super Nino. A more recent paper goes into some greater detail. I can't help but wonder if the powerful +IOD event last year played some role in the odd behavior of this year. https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/6541/2020/ In addition to the anomalous behavior in the tropical lower stratosphere in 2015/2016, we explored the forcing of the unusually long-lasting westerly zonal wind phase in the middle stratosphere (at 20 hPa). Our results reveal that mainly enhanced Kelvin wave activity contributed to this feature. This was in close relation with the strong El Niño event in 2015/2016, which forced more Kelvin waves in the equatorial troposphere. The easterly or very weak westerly zonal winds present around 30–70 hPa allowed these Kelvin waves to propagate vertically and deposit their momentum around 20 hPa, maintaining the westerlies there.

Interestingly enough, the qbo that year actually was westerly below 30mb to the tropopause. This year actually looks to do that as well albeit with a thicker vertical profile. Also interesting in that 2007-08 was completely different then this year. Merely a couple observations. Cheers.

Worked this up for October 1970

Here's a newer paper on the MJO - AO connection. But also how the QBO modulation plays into it. For anyone who is interested in a little reading. It's open access. https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/2/175

These blasted 3 part ridges are always the kiss of death. Or are they?? I found that particular pattern to be interesting. So I did a little digging. Only instance of this that I've found in a nina thus far. Doesn't mean jack, just something interesting. At least I thought so. Seemed appropriate to post it here now.

In a MEI sense, 2007 looks like the best fit.

My girlfriend lives in Branford. She says trees blocking roads everywhere, and a tree came down in front of her on the way home from work. Took her 3 hrs for a 20 min trip. This was somewhere on Rt. 1

Merry Christmas

Big Iceland storm, looks wild.

If we look at the 2 October's from your example and compare with this October from your post. One is a little more interesting.

Yeah, hopefully we'll pay dearly come DJF.

Pumpkins everywhere!!

Didn't feel it

Happy Thanksgiving folks

I agree with your main point here. It's November, right. The thing is, seeing blocking show up for the end of Nov. like this, is kind of what you want to see in a la nina. The ratter years, for the most part, didn't have it. That's what it's all about right now, at least for me.

They were.

Yes... Oh wait you mean the weather.