GrandmasterB

I like rolling the dice with a well defined boundary to our south. Often times we get multiple chances and some of them can be significant. Might also see a cutter that hits a deeper cold airmass than what we had yesterday leading to a better front end thump.
There are still ways to fail of course but that’s the case in every pattern.

I just measured 2.25” on the sidewalk. Light precip that’s mostly sleet now with a few flakes mixed in. Temp hovering at 33. If it fails to rain here that would be an incredible positive bust.

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Oh, if comparing to other models then I totally understand.    I thought people may have been saying GFS nailed it while the GFS seemed high.  Nam did really poorly, RGEM did poorly until the end, the HRRR was too warm in thermals, etc.   I thought the GFS has large 4-6" areas near Harrisburg. 

Yeah, I was comparing GFS to everything else. Euro may have been 2nd closest. NAM and RGEM did poorly. And I’m only grading my hood. I’m selfish like that!

Back to all snow. With over 2” I’m going with positive bust here. You love to see it!

Close to 2” here with 80/20 snow sleet mix. GFS did very well with this storm.

Well that escalated quickly! Mod snow here. Let’s see how long it holds on.

4” in two hours on the RGEM. I’d pay cash for that!

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Nam with a big adjustment south.  This is Kuch. 

 

The 10:1 on TT looks even better. It’s probably clown but interesting nonetheless. Areas that can stay snow for an hour or two could do ok.

GFS will not give it up. Continues to show more snow than any other model. I’m assuming it goes down in flames.

The NAM is concerning even for State College. I think that's probably curtains for down here. Really the theme of the season, just can't get anything to work.

10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

No Euro on Pivotal. 

It looks like hour 68 is available on weather.us so I compared the total snow accum map from 0Z and it’s noticeably crappier.  IDK if it’s valid or not but it would make sense if it were indeed way crappier.

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Well stated - question is...will that wall of precip come in while we still have thermals? If the precip is delayed a couple of hours, we lose our window. 

Oh, for sure! Very valid concern. There is a straight forward case to make that the morning marches on and temps rise before the precip even gets here. I’ll offer that it’s a 30% chance that it’s plain rain at 33 by the time it gets here and I don’t even see a flake.

Elliot’s forecast looks reasonable to me and closely matches NWS here. I also think the concerns everyone laid out this morning are valid and warranted. However, I also think this set-up has a better “positive bust” potential than any of our previous chances so far here in the southeast.

The temps and especially DP leading in aren’t bad. GFS just went colder at 12Z and NAM has DP’s in the mid 20’s tomorrow morning. This should basically be a wall of precip with little virga so if we can squeak out an extra hour of snow we could get to 2” or maybe a bit more. Again, forecast wise I think up to an inch is a prudent forecast. But I can see a path to exceeding that if it breaks right which I really haven’t seen in past chances.

0Z GFS a tick snowier down here.  About the same as 18Z for true central.

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hopefully the 0z NAM is just doing NAM things…

About the same as 18Z here. Beefed up for true central though.

The NAM looks like a line of thunderstorms that turns to snow in our area. Whatever falls will be heavy for a few hours!

12 minutes ago, paweather said:

Neither do I. I’ll remain optimistic 

Yeah, I’m definitely cool with the optimism.  My posts aren’t directed at anyone, just general venting. This season has been awful which is annoying.

16 minutes ago, paweather said:

Not sure what that means great melt most models have 3-4” for the area

Melt - Short for meltdown like trainingtime’s this morning.

I’m selling 3-4 down here. State College? Sure. But since last night’s great Euro run all trends have been to hold off on precip down here until it’s too warm.

Slipping away down here as others predicted. Well at least I have a great melt lined up for Wednesday morning!

GFS trimmed the southeast edge in a disconcerting way but still implies a nice front end thump.

18Z NAM is the fail scenario where the main precip waits until the warm air gets here. Certainly can’t discount that possibility. It would be quite a nut punch considering how bad our run has been.

5 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This is not going to be the vibe of a typical post of mine.

This winter is wearing on me. We had one snow at home (about 1") which I missed entirely while I was at work. It snowed a second time (about .25") while I slept and missed again. (though I did see some remnants in the morning. 

Today I started my day at home as I got home very late last night and had early meetings this morning, which I took from home. I was up at 5:30 and saw rain. It rained up until the time I left. Between 7 and 8 there was a mix, but it never flipped to snow (I clearly was lacking rates at this point) and it was never even close to moderate. On my way to work I did see the hills south of Wrightsville were VERY white...clearly more than a coating. The only other evidence of snow I saw was a little bit on Chickies between the trail parking lot and the day care center on the south side. Nothing at all anywhere else, and nothing at home other than some mixed flakes with the rain.

Happy that you got to see some nice snow falling.  But this winter just flat out sucks. And there's nothing anyone can say at this point to convince me otherwise. I feel for those down here in the southern part of Lanco who are STILL shutout on the season. 

On to Wednesday...

Great melt this morning! (Which I respect) I promise to better it if I don’t see at least 2” Wednesday.

Globals are going to under estimate the CAD. That’s not a weenie line, but legit when we should actually use the NAM.
I would toss the CMC thermals for the thump. For example, the 12ZCMC actually has the 2” further south and East then its 0Z run but the 6 hour panels looked terrible.

27 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Be lying if I said I wasn't a bit worried about that initial tongue of moisture being too far to our north, have seen it showing up on quite a few models.  GFS at 12z has also cut totals a bit for the entire region.

I’ve seen that before when nowcasting radar. Precip is streaming well north while the thermals are getting wrecked. Just have to hope it doesn’t play out like that on this storm.

I thought GFS at least held serve down here. Certainly cut back for true central but I wouldn’t be too worried there.