GrandmasterB

Certainly, a bump in the right direction on the GFS. Let's see what the other models do. Without any of the blocking I'd be close to punting this one due to the usual nwest trend, but this is a unique set-up. Still lots of time to go.

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

NAM Fantasy Land lol

Dews are in the mid 20’s on that panel and upper teens in true central. If that’s accurate it will be tough to scour out.

Part of the fun in lurking is observing the chaos of the snow tracking season especially in other forums. I have to admit throughout the years this forum has been rock solid, never too high or low. I appreciate the posters here. Cheers! Here's to a great year of tracking (and hopefully cashing)!! 

1 hour ago, AtlanticWx said:

18z GFS is a dumpster fire, literally.

I did some research and it looks like Germantown typically has a few feet of pack in place by Dec 15. I advise cancelling winter per this op run.

9 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Temps diving tonight.


.

No kidding.  I've weenie wishcasted my temp down to 33 already.

21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Can I take my 4-6 to the bank? 

Don't bank it until it's falling from the sky! 

Wow at that GFS run.  Dang!  Good thump for the true central folks.

17 minutes ago, paweather said:

Pretty darn close:

 

Storm started out a little further SE on the NAM but surface a little warmer so it washed.  Looks like we'll end with close but no cigar in the southeast but north and west of Harrisburg continues to look good for some light accums.

That's quite a shift on the Euro.  Kinda the only model at this point that gets rain/snow mix that far south and it's a large shift from the 0Z run so tough to put a lot of stock in it.  Will probably go back closer to the 0Z run at 18Z.  I'll still enjoy the digital white rain for 6 more hours.

19 minutes ago, paweather said:

I’m excited!!!

Are you in Hershey?  I'm not getting my hopes up for more than some rain/snow mix to start.  We still need a lot of help.  Further northwest I think could see some accumulation.

High stronger and in a better position on all 12Z guidance.  A few more ticks that way and maybe even the SE portion (what I care about) gets on the board.  I'd certainly be excited if I were in State College.

GFS is colder but storm is kind of a mess that lacks significant precip.

84 hour NAM map has been posted.  I believe that's the official start of the season!  

9 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

How is the NoGaps looking for Tue? 

I'm assuming it's way OTS and here are my 7 irrational reasons why that's actually great for our snow chances.

Feels good to be back.  I'm ready to over-analyze any and all model runs.

Current snowfall intensity report: Ripping

Mix of rain and sleet at 6am, but mostly all snow now.  Intensity picking up.  Should be a wild run for the next 5 hours!

Hour 14 on the RGEM is like a map I would draw to dream about.  Those are some rates!

This is how we run HH friends!

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

YOOOOOOOOOO!!!  

When MU honks then I know it's on.  Let's go weenies, this should be a fun one!

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

12Z GFS

 

 

Looked like a general (but small) increase across the board vs. the 6Z run.  I'll gladly take a widespread 4-6!  Will be interesting with the east move if the counties under the watch get upgraded to warnings.

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Just ran through all the 12Z's out already...including the lesser revered...and the spread is all over the place.   No more 1-2 feet in Central PA looks but lots of RGEM and Rap like large scale snows for large areas but an even amount of far eastern looks where someone like MDT gets 2.5".   Nam 3K is one of them.  Should be an exciting HH run tonight.   

I went back through some early pages and outside of one NAM and one RGEM run nothing showed 2 feet.  Even those runs were like 12-15" in the absolute max areas.  Certainly not enough to warrant a forecast of 1-2 feet.  Hopefully it's a nice spread of those who get a precip max (maybe east but who knows) or higher ratios and everyone can get a nice event!  

I just had to bun a lot of you weenies.  All of a sudden we're poo-pooing 3-6"??  That's warning criteria down here...and it's almost mid-March!  CTP mentions in the a.m. write up that those to the west missing the heavy QPF are going to get good ratios, so can we temper the bridge jumping?  Now if all the 12Z runs shift east...I'll be right there with you!

I checked in to see the euro and damn…not dissapointed!