GrandmasterB

Stolen from MA forum

6 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said:

This is nuts like literally for us in York and Lancaster if there is another bump north before it happens, we are in at least an advisory type event! All forecasts around here are saying nothing…

It's happened before that everyone is playing catch-up.  It's tough right now...do you trust the trends and forecast accumulations county wide?  Could just as easily bump back the 20 miles and current forecasts are fine.  Should be interesting!

That was another noticeable bump north.  4" line at southern Lancaster county now.

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

CMC seems like a decent compromise between the Rgem/GFS and the others.   More central VA for the jackpots.  It did trend north from 0Z though. 

Yep, another noticeable bump on another model.  Going to be razor edge I think

11 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Winter is over 

Euro will track south.  
 

I GIVE UP

see ya at 18Z!

The low doesn't necessarily look more north to me on the 12Z GFS, but it looks like it expanded the moderate/heavy precip about 20-30 miles north.  Just keep making small moves, won't take a lot more now!

Dang...tempted to stay up for the Euro now.

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

One thing the N VA area needs to watch is changeover issues.  Its just not that cold. 

Verbatim they would be fine that far northwest of the low.  I still think (pray) it could bump north.

1" line through most of Lancaster/close to MDT.  3" line tickling the MD line.  42 hours to go BTW.

Central VA crushed.  Another sizeable bump north.  I thought 42 would look better than it did.  Even closer miss now! 

LOL.  The low is practically in Kentucky this run of the GFS.

As fun as it is to look at, 6 days is an eternity.  Thankful to be tracking though.  December was brutal!

And no thanks on the Jan 07 bullseye six days out.  Way too much time left...hopefully we can track for awhile though!

Northwest on the Euro too.  Wish we had another 24 hours.  Seems like it will be close but no cigar! 

Pretty big jump northwest on the Canadian.  Maybe the Euro can make a small move in that direction.  Not sure we are out of the game yet for Jan 03 at least for the SE crew.

I know you all love some NAM, so check out the 0Z.  Much love to our region.  Nice thump!

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

In the short term, the 3 major globals bring 1 to 2 inches of snow to a good portion of CTP tomorrow.

 

GFS, Euro, and NAM have been slowly improving (for snow/Ice) tomorrow.  Any snow or frozen is a plus right now!

Swing and a miss on the first real threat so far and looking at punting the next two weeks.  Oh well, still plenty of prime climo time left!

Nice improvement on the CMC.  You can see how it could have been even a little better.  Obviously would love to see the Euro do something similar!

4 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

You don't need to smash the Refresh button, it updates by itself on TT

I know...LOL!  I just thought it sounded better 

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

700/850s are a little deeper into the MA.  Not sure why the GFS is showing the mix into SE Pa.  Thermal profiles were fine.  Wonky/bunk.....toss 

Yeah, the GFS randomly threw in some rain well northwest which is wrong.  Overall compared to 6Z it really didn’t change much.  I was hoping for at least a little nudge northwest.

Not gonna do it this run.  I thought 500 actually looked a little worse vs. 6Z, but the low pressure is a bit stronger so it’s kind of a wash.

Smashing the refresh button on the GFS for a 1-3” “event“, hoping the NAM is on to something.  Happy start of the season everyone!  Here’s to the NAM and plenty of snow!!

12Z ICON improved (north-er) vs. it’s prior run.

For the record (and before the GFS runs) I do think this comes north a bit. We’ve seen it too many times inside of 60 hours that we get a north trend.  I’d rather be rooting for that than trending towards a flatter solution.  And in this case the NAM will have led the way!