GrandmasterB

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It looks MUCH drier to me - some areas in Central PA get a couple of inches. Not many areas in the entire state get more than 6". 

Edit: I don't see anywhere in the Commonwealth over 6" 

Doesn't throw much precip back after the front clears.  Common issue in this situation.

42 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

If you zoom into the NE you'll note it came SE down around the M/D line and points south.  Likely a byproduct of the slp being a tad SE of 6z and precip panels adjusted accordingly.  This is why I look at the snow panels as they show a rough blend of thermal profiles, precip and even forcing in frozen and non frozen varieties.  Not for the perty colors.  

Really wouldnt take much to get us in the game down here.  Gonna be close either way.

 

I thought the 12Z GFS was an improvement vs. 6Z and the 12Z CMC was an improvement vs. 0Z.  GFS looks to be the furthest west of models right now.  Guess I'll invest emotionally one last time this winter!  Let's do it.

Hard to believe we just toss the Euro, but the RGEM snow map looks much more realistic and the Euro has not been great around here this winter.

I'll take 3-6" on the deck and call it a winter!  Could be nice rates in the morning too.

57 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Aaaaaahhhhh up above Brickerville are ya?  Love it up that way.  Yeah you will fare a good bit better than me I reckon.

I love where I'm at.  Although I'd like Vermont too, but the wife has vetoed it for now!

18Z GFS ups snow across the board...more importantly shows some accums south of our area.  I'm not giving up on this one yet!

25 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It did not on the map I looked at.  A lot of 1" totals for low lying areas of Adams, Lancaster and York county....strange blow up of extra just south of Lancaster which may be what you are looking at.   Actually had a sizeable area of 1/2" north of Lancaster.   It had a strip of 2-3" in Cumberland country and North East from there.   But my comment was based on it staying 35 with the large areas of 1" or less.  Nothing close to what it was showing 24 hours ago. 

 

 

In fairness to you, I'm a mile from the Lebanon border and at 600'.  I still think this could surprise in the border counties with some elevation.

26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

For tomorrow, the HRRR continues the push North.  Little in the way of snow accums for non elevated areas of the southern half of the LSV.   Temp stays 35 and above almost the entire time.  Dips to 33-34 up Myra's way.  Even Williamsport just briefly touches freezing. 

I looked at the HRRR and it shows 5-6 hours of snow and 2" accumulation in my hood.  I didn't think it looked all that bad really.  I'd sign on that real quick.  I think we can punt road accumulations, but I'm not turning my nose up at 6 hours of moderate snow.

I thought the 12Z Euro was slightly colder than 0Z and was close to a wet snow bomb for Lebanon/Schuylkill on north and west.  One thing going for it on that run was the slightly earlier onset of precip.  If we can get decent rates early in the morning that would really help.   Speaking about tonight/tomorrow.

Acceptable event IMO.  Deck encased in ice, trees and anything elevated has a solid layer on it.  I'll take it in a winter that has only handed us scraps!

If it's cold enough tonight and we don't get the precip I may have to meltdown on here.  I apologize in advance.

Occasional sleet pellets.  Temp stuck at 30 all morning.  12Z GFS is a colder run but shifted best precip north again.

1 minute ago, anthonyweather said:

RGEM doubled ZR. even half of this is big trouble 

 

 

Whoa!  Those are big time numbers.  Going to be interesting tomorrow if this continues as modeled.

Great discussion and comments today from everyone.  It's a double-edged sword for sure.  You throw the watches up early and the impact busts (usually does for ice) then people are hesitant to trust it next time.  The time it does verify though and you have a .5 to 1" of sleet with some freezing rain on top and the travel impacts are more severe than a 6" snow.  Definitely a tough one to forecast for our area!  

Nevermind!  Saw this in the Philly thread.  Damn!

where's the 18Z Euro update at?  Rumors of a souther/colder tick.  paweather, whadya got??

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Check out the GFS.  Definitely believe it when I see it.  Maps like this have fallen to the wayside several time's this years.  Maybe not this time.

 

Dewpoint is 27-28 when precip starts on the GFS.  Upper 20's is different than 31/32 in these situations. 

40 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

Run after run some big numbers even cut this in half still trouble. 

My takeaway here is that the freezing rain line is way south into MD.  Even if it's wrong by 50-70 miles, we're still in the crosshairs.  I'm usually pretty down on these threats but I think this one could be impactful.

I know I'll regret saying this...BUT shouldn't we be putting more stock in the NAM at this range and with this set-up?  The old rule used to be globals were too aggressive (warm) with surface temps when the high was parked in this spot.  The high isn't racing east this time.  I know we underperformed ice lately, but this is a different set-up than the last few.

4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

What part of all that would make one think such a widespread area of freezing rain in southern PA? The -3 to -6ºC 925mb temps alone easily suggest to me sleetbomb and the 850 level isn’t even evacuated out Harrisburg and north at that point. The p-type map is really suspect to me if those low level temps in fact end up that cold. 

MAG talking dirty.  Gotta love that!

Throw CMC in the colder than last run pile.

Very reasonable takes in here.  It’s tough to get real impact at 31/32 degrees as we’ve seen so many times in the past.  Each situation is different, would like one to trend towards more wintry weather (of course!).  The ICON and GFS were noticeably colder at 12Z for whatever it’s worth.  

I was fully ready to write this one off as "ice never verifies as significant as modeled".  But dang that Euro run has me interested!  Much colder than the 0Z run.  

Looks like the 18Z GFS with a noticeably colder solution vs. the 12Z run.  

2 hours ago, medmax said:

I’m out for the season. My snow weenie has gone flaccid.

See ya at 0Z!

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

What’s the opposite of being bullseye’d???  I live just slightly north of the minimum.  At least the tracking has been decent.  Some years we get neither!