GrandmasterB

0Z GFS a tick snowier down here.  About the same as 18Z for true central.

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hopefully the 0z NAM is just doing NAM things…

About the same as 18Z here. Beefed up for true central though.

The NAM looks like a line of thunderstorms that turns to snow in our area. Whatever falls will be heavy for a few hours!

12 minutes ago, paweather said:

Neither do I. I’ll remain optimistic 

Yeah, I’m definitely cool with the optimism.  My posts aren’t directed at anyone, just general venting. This season has been awful which is annoying.

16 minutes ago, paweather said:

Not sure what that means great melt most models have 3-4” for the area

Melt - Short for meltdown like trainingtime’s this morning.

I’m selling 3-4 down here. State College? Sure. But since last night’s great Euro run all trends have been to hold off on precip down here until it’s too warm.

Slipping away down here as others predicted. Well at least I have a great melt lined up for Wednesday morning!

GFS trimmed the southeast edge in a disconcerting way but still implies a nice front end thump.

18Z NAM is the fail scenario where the main precip waits until the warm air gets here. Certainly can’t discount that possibility. It would be quite a nut punch considering how bad our run has been.

5 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This is not going to be the vibe of a typical post of mine.

This winter is wearing on me. We had one snow at home (about 1") which I missed entirely while I was at work. It snowed a second time (about .25") while I slept and missed again. (though I did see some remnants in the morning. 

Today I started my day at home as I got home very late last night and had early meetings this morning, which I took from home. I was up at 5:30 and saw rain. It rained up until the time I left. Between 7 and 8 there was a mix, but it never flipped to snow (I clearly was lacking rates at this point) and it was never even close to moderate. On my way to work I did see the hills south of Wrightsville were VERY white...clearly more than a coating. The only other evidence of snow I saw was a little bit on Chickies between the trail parking lot and the day care center on the south side. Nothing at all anywhere else, and nothing at home other than some mixed flakes with the rain.

Happy that you got to see some nice snow falling.  But this winter just flat out sucks. And there's nothing anyone can say at this point to convince me otherwise. I feel for those down here in the southern part of Lanco who are STILL shutout on the season. 

On to Wednesday...

Great melt this morning! (Which I respect) I promise to better it if I don’t see at least 2” Wednesday.

Globals are going to under estimate the CAD. That’s not a weenie line, but legit when we should actually use the NAM.
I would toss the CMC thermals for the thump. For example, the 12ZCMC actually has the 2” further south and East then its 0Z run but the 6 hour panels looked terrible.

27 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Be lying if I said I wasn't a bit worried about that initial tongue of moisture being too far to our north, have seen it showing up on quite a few models.  GFS at 12z has also cut totals a bit for the entire region.

I’ve seen that before when nowcasting radar. Precip is streaming well north while the thermals are getting wrecked. Just have to hope it doesn’t play out like that on this storm.

I thought GFS at least held serve down here. Certainly cut back for true central but I wouldn’t be too worried there.

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Excuse the mouse drawn arrow.  LOL 

 

^or what Bubbler said!!

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Cutters giving us snow.....Interesting but will take it. 

State College added in the discussion that the airmass will be dry ahead of the precip which allows that initial slug to fall as snow.  Just gotta hope it comes in hot and heavy before the warm air wins out.

NWS State College notes that they made significant changes for Wednesday and it reads much more bullish. MAG is the goat!

Nice overnight runs. Looks like the trend was just colder overall. I’ll gladly accept my defeat to MAG!

3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I do like this storm to target the heart of the CTP region with a decent warm advection snowfall. The other ensemble blends are pretty similar to the Euro’s.  Storm is close enough that the Euro’s hourly products (out to 90) can see pretty much the whole event. The hourly was suggestive of a band to 1-2”/hr snowfall to come across C-PA during the late morning/early afternoon Wednesday prior to the mixing/dry slot.

My concern at the moment is for the southern tier LSV. Models like the Euro and NAM (at range) are having the bulk of this WAA snowfall swath roughly turnpike and north there and missing with the best rates at a time when it will easily be cold enough to snow there. Something to watch as this gets more into the short range. I still think everyone in the LSV sees at least 1”+ out of this. 

 

12Z models continuing to trend warmer here in the southeast for Wednesday. I’m going to go against you and say I’m not seeing 1”.  I hope I’m wrong and you’re right!!

17 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Happy hour GFS looks good for both events.

Here is tomorrow into Monday 

All of that accum down here is on the backend.  Most likely fraudulent but trend is interesting.

Yeah, the NAM was noticeable in how much colder it was than 12Z.  Also, as others mentioned starting to see some support for the R/S line to crash back to the southeast at some point.  Interesting to see if that holds up during the 0Z runs.  Feels like we've been tracking this one forever and we still have a full day to go!

2 hours ago, Superstorm said:

I think Lanco gets on the board Wednesday.


.

Pains me to say it but...I kind of see Wednesday turning into tomorrow's event. Anyone close to that SE edge may see any accumulations march steadily northwest.  12Z Euro already starting that move.  Why bet against the seasonal trend at this point?

Life on the southeast edge of the snow/no snow cutoff is not a fun one.

Just now, canderson said:

So rain and 34 instead of rain and 35?

That’s the something!

0Z NAM a tick colder Sunday night. Not a big difference but if you’re a hopeless snow tracker it’s…something?

Just now, canderson said:

At this point I am rooting for the major east coast stations to get blanked. Not because I don’t like those users but we need data to show how truly historically shit this is. A dumb 9” late March storm would ruin that. 

Yeah I’m torn at this point. We’re just past the halfway point in terms of snow accumulation average. Still a little early to go all in on futility rooting. I would like to see some snow, but if LNS is at 0 by March 1 then let’s go full shutout!

My extremely low bar of 1” looking like it won’t happen around my area. Just a crazy poor winter!