GrandmasterB

GFS definitely keeping the door open.  2-4" east of the river without much precip from the coastal.  Still 3+ days out.  I know NE gets hammered, but I'm not tossing a moderate event just because I'm not jacked.

21 minutes ago, paweather said:

Well it looks like a L for the weekend what is next?

You can't weenie wishcast a nor' easter with that attitude!  It's still close enough to pray for small trends at least for those of us east of Harrisburg.  Chin up paweather!

Delmarva to State College is not my favorite coastal track

I do love model watching and this storm has been a unique one to follow, but if I end up with less than an inch of snow I'm going to be pretty frustrated.  Mid Jan and I'll have 3" total.

17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

A voice of reason?  Good analysis.  I said it was the worst nam run due to ground truth temps in the 40's (12Z got their as well but had more frz) but it could have trended a bit better. 

 

 

The surface is sort of the last thing I'm worrying about.  Rain at 30 or rain at 34...doesn't accrete well either way.  Mag is right (of course) about the duration.  It doesn't have a lot of time to wreck the surface temps.  Usually that happens on SW winds when the low is ripping up through Lake Erie.  I think the NAM is probably too high and fast on surface temps.

I actually thought the 18Z NAM looked a bit better than its 12Z run (which was also a disaster).  The surface low is further south and east early on.  Then as the surface low tracks into PA it tries to transition to a coastal just south of LI.  I know the mid levels are nuked at that point but if that transition can happen further south or east that will buy us valuable thump time.

Agree with you Bubbler on the CMC.  That's one way we can get back to a snowier solution.  Get the coastal low going sooner/more east and cut off the surge to our west.  CMC is a noticeable shift towards that.  Let's see if we can get it on the Euro.  I can't believe tomorrow is another full day tracking for this event!  Feels like we've been tracking it for a month now.

One aspect of this storm I was looking forward to was the advertised hellacious front-end thump showing up.  However, that has backed down significantly for us in the southeast as the WAA precip lags while the SE flow in the mid-levels is just raging.  So now we'll be waiting for the precip to get here as the mid-levels will be getting wrecked.  Looks like a burst of snow, to some sleet, then drizzle.  That burst of snow is dwindling for some of us.

Icon at 78 looks slightly better.  For whatever that’s worth.  

Snowing nicely and I noticed the wind has switched around to the northeast and has freshened up.  Feels like a real snowstorm out there!

4 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Cheers fellas!

 

Love me some Treehouse.  I have 30ish cans in the fridge right now!  Cheers!!

I really like how this is setting up.  It appears that dry area that was modeled is southeast of our forum.

Light snow.  Deck caved.  Radar looking good as well.  I like all those things!

1 minute ago, canderson said:

I’m pretty darn excited for the first real forumwide snowfall. I do have say I wish it wasn’t going to be mainly from 12-4 am though lol

Aw, the hell with it.  I'm staying up.  How often does it snow?

Does the GFS just want to bust at the last minute??  Holy moly!  Region wide 4-6"

That is a NAM beatdown!  You love to see it.  

I'm not prone to radar hallucinations but looking back at the 12Z NAM, it didn't have any of the precip currently in western NC and points south.  It's raining in Asheville, NC and the NAM has no accumulated precip there.  I just don't see how that slug of moisture misses eastern areas to the west.  I guess it can do the energy transfer to the coastal thing, but I'm skeptical.  

43 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

respond to this post for guesses 

 

2.7" on .20.  I'll lean in on the hybrid A/B screw job.

I'm too lazy to look back, but I think that's one of the better Euro runs of the last several days.

Thanks Bubbler!  Hopefully 2" is the floor here.  Will definitely be nice to get on the board!

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS was a Jersey Shore Special

 

is that 10-1 or Kuch?

I'd put the NAM in the shopping cart and hit buy now.  Totally acceptable considering the trends at 12Z.

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

The Nam depiction is pretty strange.

 

Just logging on to mention this.  It was talked about in the New England forum about the Euro as well...models may be struggling a bit with the location of any kind of coastal development.  Models "chasing" convection to the east.  I think (hope) there is some upside if we see a more consolidated coastal low.

We’re out of time but the NAM did bump north vs. 18Z but it was pretty far south to begin with.

I’m in until the NAM run.  Then I’ll probably be out again!  Seriously though it’s been fun to track at least.  Happy for the DC and south crew, it’s been awhile for them.