GrandmasterB

Pro tip: if you check models tonight or tomorrow for possible flakes on Saturday then you’re really only going 5 months without checking models for snow. 

A highlight of the season ITT! 

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

MU is seeing what I'm seeing, Courtesy of PA thread 

 

For context MU is a great met up here, but typically very conservative. 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I had not seen the MU stuff but now that I have I might post it in the Mid Atl, its getting grim down there.  I've never, EVER, seen a closed H5 and H7 track through Ohio and MD/PA and produce a big snowstorm that misses us to the south.  EVER.  Can't find a single example of that with a big snow for Richmond or Delmarva.  Oddly if it were to trend even further south I can find some examples of NC and VA beach snows that missed Richmond... which makes sense, either there is a strong enough wave and in that case its coming up in this setup...or its a weak wave that escapes without any NS interaction but then its gonna get sqashed even further than current guidance.  So imo this storm is either going further south than models have it currently...or coming north.  

Thanks for posting up here. MU is excellent and typically conservative so to see him aggressive on this set-up and echoing your thoughts is interesting.

I think the NAM goes even bigger at 0Z. Add to the drama. 

Ok so it’s Blizz, MU, JB, Hoffman and the NAM against the Euro, GFS, Ruin, and all the AI models.

Everyone pick a side!

Blizz hacked MU’s account! 
 

Just a nut kick progression from 66 to 96 at 500. 

Just now, Jns2183 said:

That might be the closest I have ever seen it and not be captured

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk
 

100% agree

Hour 42 of GFS small changes at 500. I think the changes are a bit better but also guessing and wishcasting.

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

 

I think we needed this 100 miles farther East. 

 

 

 

 

 

WOOF! That 500 look is insane. How does that not crush us!?

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Thanks.  I upped my post after first draft to show the major north shift. 

No worries. Appreciate the ICON analysis! 

I find it interesting that the ICON decided to go due east here. Could be the suppressed flow up north, and if it is then we’ve seen that relax all the way up to go time.

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Icon 999 low just south of the VA Capes and no snow here.  Right....Das Verruckt

Yes, but worlds improved from its 12Z run 

I like the look of the NAM at 84. Probably not worth a lot but notable nonetheless. 

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My contention is from being spoiled over the past 20-25 years. We used to average a double digit snowstorm about once a decade. They started to become commonplace to the point where they've become an unrealistic expectation.

I wouldn’t put you in the Deb group

1 hour ago, Ruin said:

about the time people started to realize that models suck even just 3-5 days out. yes its nice to chase the storm  10 days out but it seems to never happen any more. only time we end up getting storms that do anything are the storms that come out of no where and were not on any model runs until 3-4 days out or over performing storms. I just dont know why its so hard for people on this site to admit models suck 

I’m convinced that you think “models suck” but I’ve never seen you post any data. Feel free to provide your forecast based on an alternative. 

When did our forum pick up so many Debs? A lot of football spiking for 100+ hours out. 

Just now, anotherman said:

Man, why do allow myself to get sucked in time after time. Awful.

It stings but that’s the hobby. We’ve seen them come back before. 

I don’t like the changes at 500 on the 18Z. The ridge out west is much flatter. Pretty big differences early on. Oh well. On to 0Z.

7 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Here you go


.

Not bad. Thanks!

What does the euro clown map look like for just tomorrow? 

As others have mentioned, pretty much all of the 12Z models so far went thumpier for tomorrow 

30 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Dear Central PA Weather Morning Crew:

You're welcome. Thank me now or thank me later.

This place was DEAD last evening...2 completely disjointed and meaningless convos going in our 2 threads centered on alcohol prices at sporting events and something related to Texas between the Windy guy from Harrisburg and the Snow Plow Driver from Dillsburg. Yes...Texas. We were talking about Texas man, we're talking about Texas. Texas. Not the Icon. Not the GFS. We're in here talking about Texas. We're talking about Texas. We're talking about Texas...

Sensing this, I said to myself "you know what...you've been excited about next week's potential for a couple of weeks now. It's time to step up your game and do something about it." So, even though I needed to be in the office early, I stayed up until 1:30 this morning. I, yes I provided updates on the GFS. The GEM. The UKMET...and finally the Euro. I even posted a freaking snow map or two!!! I resurrected the threat next week after 18z went to hell. I brought it back to life. 

Now, let's go! Already this morning, models don't look as epic as they did overnight. Let's keep the mojo flowing here! 

You’re doing the lord’s work. (and thank you)

31 minutes ago, Ruin said:

the point I always try to make is how bad the models are. yesterday the temp for sunday was forecasted to be in the upper 30s now the same day in the mid 50s? in the span of one day it changes that much? this is where my negativity and frustration comes into play. Ive never attacked any one on here either so if you feel that way im sorry I didnt mean for that. I simply hate the fact these models are so bad in the year 2025 and they are not getting any better. They felt way more accurate when I was a kid.

Hey if it feels true it probably is!