GrandmasterB

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Model verification for MDT's 7.7" of snow on the normal Global and Meso models at 48 and 24 hours out from 12Z Yesterday (Sun and Mon 12Z Runs).    Cannot see the HRRR's on Pivotal at that point.  Numbers are rounded and pivotal keeps switching from 10:1 or Kuch so tried to double check.    EC and UK are 10:1. 

 

 

This is interesting data. Thanks for compiling it. A few things that stood out to me for this event. Of course, Euro was terrible as mentioned by others. Just horrible.

The GFS was quite good overall and is having an impressive season IMO.

The RGEM should be discontinued. 

25 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

A Season In The Life Of A Central PA Winter Part 

Straight to the HOF. Absolute peak.

52 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

That makes sense.  Up near Brickerville are ya?  I used to fish at Speedwell quite a bit.  What's your elevation?

I’m at the very top of the hill at Speedwell.

12 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

10am FINAL Obs:  Temp up to 35 as snow has tapered off and skies are brightening.  An additional half inch brings my storm total to 5.5". 

It sure seemed like I was under some of the best radar returns for most of the morning but a lot of you did a bit better than me.  I'm thinking my marginal temps reduced the efficiency of my accumulation at times.  Anyway, very pleased and a stunning scene out there!  I will get a liquid measurement a little later and report back.  On to Saturday.....

I’m on top of a large hill and very far north…just one mile to the TP so I often do better than other Lancaster locales.

Starting to wind down. Just a shade under 6” total. What a great morning! Waking up at 4am was well worth it.

Still moderate here. Should be closing in on 6”. Warning level will verify and 24 hours ago I didn’t have an advisory. 

Just measured 4” and still ripping. Great event!

Maybe heaviest rates of the storm right now. Down to nearly 1/4 visibility. Nukeage.

Another increase on the latest HRRR.

Rates have steadily increased the last 45 minutes. I’m going to estimate it’s very close to “pukeage” right now.

LOL, Philly with 10” on the GFS. This is about to get crazy!

No idea what this model is, but I’ll take the 12 it has me getting.

Woke up at 4am to watch frozen water fall from the sky. Normal hobby.

Big hit for all of central on the GFS.  Should be interesting tomorrow am.

Ninja’d

RGEM with some insane rates 

Saw this on X. No idea if it’s true:

“Air Force Hurricane Hunters are out this evening sampling the atmosphere ahead of the developing Nor'easter.

10-15 dropsondes will be dropped and will help our models get a better grasp on the forecast.”

28 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This is making me very, very happy…

 

I said it earlier and I’ll say it again. You are an absolute legend for this one. Never gave up hope and looks like it’s going to deliver!

Full cave from the Euro

18 minutes ago, Festus said:

WWA for Adams, York and Lanco.  2-5"

I think this is reasonable and probably what I would forecast. Now the warning in DuBois on the other hand…

4 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

How fast can I sign for this??

LOL, just not even close to much other guidance.

The Euro has a little bit of support from the Ukie, but no support at all from the mesos. As AccuChris mentioned gotta lean mesos at this stage.

ninja’d

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU: 3-6" southern tier, more north...

I actually think that’s a bit too aggressive. Gotta hope the rates are there.

I think if the Ukie is the absolute floor for this event, that’s a great sign.