GrandmasterB

More precip state wide on the 18Z GFS

Ripping now. Nearing an inch officially. Can’t believe these winds!

3K went total weenie 

9 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

The latest long range HRRR still wants to shove a warm 850mb warm nose up into the Route 78/81 corridor tomorrow evening.  Wants to change anyone south of Route 30 to rain as well.  

That’s on all the models 

Where do I sign for this??

25/21 here. Wish the dew was lower.

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

18z Euro - I'm 10 miles away from 1". 

And probably 10 miles from 7”

Haven't seen this one in a while.  IYKYK.  Ellinwood take notes!

Final Call

Also, RGEM gives me like 10” or something wild. Interesting to see how it does.

GFS intensity is pretty crazy. I’d bet places close to the RS line but depicted as rain on the hour 30 panel are probably ripping snow, but I’m a weenie so don’t take my word for it.

GFS colder for us ride the line folks. This has been a wild tracking week for the SE crew the last several days.

GFS is colder at 30 and a better thump. 36 is warmer but a decent amount before the changeover down here.

The 3K is colder than it’s 6Z run. I know it’s not a lot but a very small silver lining.

Check out the Canadian

Right before the precip starts my dewpoint on the 3K is 24. That would definitely work.  A lot colder than the other models though.

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You're not wrong...

My once a season snow map.   

Dayum! This is getting good 

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

First it was the 12z GFS...then it was the 12z Euro...and now the 18z NAM has picked up on this...(too bad this would still likely miss most of us at this point) 

(1/2) Why is winter storm forecasting so difficult? Just look at the trend in 500 mb vorticity (upper-level energy supporting the surface low) over the past 4 runs of the GFS model. The initial energy now hangs back and interacts with the trailing disturbance over Virginia..

(2/2) That causes the storm system to slow down, become more amplified and thus intensify closer to the coast, and precip to last longer in eastern PA. The 12z ECMWF model is similar. Long story short, the writing is not yet on the wall with this system.. #developing #StayTuned

Yeah NAM was really trying late. Hard to believe we have another full day of tracking this thing!

Time to play the weenie game of give me the NAM thermals with the Euro QPF.

I think the snow amounts on the NAM were somewhat impacted by the overall QPF and QPF intensity. Which those two things are notoriously difficult to model. Overall progression on the NAM was great. 

HH NAM is going to deliver!

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

All downhill from there unfortunately 

Nope 54 still dumping

Thanks for posting those, Superstorm. Trend is clear for those of us on the bubble. Also, 12” for Allentown now??

This gradient in Lancaster county tho

Also keeps the snow hanging around into Sunday morning, albeit light.