GrandmasterB

1 minute ago, TimB said:

Merely stating what the GFS showed, and it shows that there’s still a path to complete failure for both storms.

Keep us posted!

Typical swings at 120+ hours out and 30 model runs per day. A blend of all the 12Z guidance thus far would be fine for us.

Impressive 6Z euro output. My goodness.

Would love to see that High continue to strengthen that way even if the primary goes further north we still get a thump.

Thanks for the PBP mitchnick! As others have stated, long way to go on this one but at least we should have a few days of tracking.

I’d buy that look right now for Jan 04. I get surface temps are iffy, but with that track central would be in the game. It’s not like the low is plowing up into Philly, if the track is offshore 50 miles I like our chances for some snow. Also, as Blizz is pointing out maybe multiple chances too. Great runs overnight.

23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Unreal 

Nice to see some threats popping up now on the operational runs. Hopefully we start tracking some storms within the 5-7 day range!

Very few silver linings to no snow…but one is definitely the meltdowns in the New England forum. 

Sorry I only pay attention during the winter…did our region have to give anything up to get mitchnick?  I thought mitchnick only posted in mid-Atlantic. Great addition for this sub forum.

It was great for Lancaster and a few other spots to really cash in on an overperformer yesterday. I never tracked that event and got 4 hours of light snow that accumulated on grass and even some paved spots. Could already rank this year ahead of last year!

We all know the deal with these post frontal systems. Cold air usually takes longer to come in than modeled. West winds cut the precip off quickly east of the mountains. Set low expectations.

Low probability next week (obviously) but I believe this should kick off tracking season in earnest. Feels good to be back. Can’t be as bad as last year, right? RIGHT??

4 hours ago, GrandmasterB said:

I expect the goods so you guys better deliver! 

Narrator: They did not.

That line is looking pretty gnarly. I only check in during the summer if I expect the goods so you guys better deliver! 

35 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

That’s great…. See you at 0z …Lol !!!

I was hoping someone would make that joke.  One of my all time favorites!

The sun felt great today!  I’m going to call it quits and officially say I’m ready for spring.  It was great riding with all of you even though this winter was beyond dreadful.  One of my favorite winter activities is waking up and immediately checking the models and all of the overnight posts.  Can’t wait to start it all over again in October.  I occasionally check in on severe, but for the most part I’ll be out until first frost.  Hope everyone stays safe and well until then, and maybe we can plan a get together in the fall!  Thanks again friends!!

12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Wanted to follow up on this. I store so much information in my head...have to keep on learning is my mantra. One thing I'm seeing a LOT of today while perusing the NE and NYC subs is this - much of the disappointment is not because it's not snowing but because it's not sticking. White rain abounds in areas where temps are marginal and intensity is not moderate to heavy. I think most in this thread know this but it's something to keep in mind...one of those recent GFS runs for next week had midday air temps around 34-36 degrees in the LSV. We'd be in trouble if that played out like that. Temp will have to be lower and we'll need big time rates to compensate for the date. Back in 2018 I was accumulating nicely midday first day of spring but it was legit +SN and it was 31 degrees. 

 

A lot of those reporting stations up there where white rain is falling are at 34-36 degrees...

100% correct. I know sun angle gets thrown around a lot across the forums, but in March it can be an accumulation killer.  Especially, as you pointed out, in light to moderate intensity periods.

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Current storm has already dropped over 2 feet in parts of New England with many more hours of snow left to come...

Shaping up to be a pretty big bust though in populated areas of CT/Eastern Mass.  Forecast areas of 12-16 may end up with a few inches or none at all.  Kinda fun to track actually since I had no emotional investment like I would have if it was impacting down here!

This New England storm is crazy. Every model has a sick cutoff depending on exact track and elevation.  Check this out:

Nothing to 24” in a few miles:

Crazy model war with this storm for New England.  GFS is not impressive outside of elevated areas. 163 pages for this storm in their sub forum.  Almost makes me glad to be on the sideline!  

Interesting NAM run

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

6z euro back to reality.  00z might of just been a head fake

Yeah, sounds like it’s later with the coastal development which is a move towards the GFS.

Euro definitely looks good, but it’s a bit on its own with how quickly it strengthens the coastal south of us. If the coastal is delayed like the GFS then the best (and maybe only) snow is well north and east. Today will be a critical day to see if the Euro folds or the other globals trend towards it.

10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here are the 18z EPS low locations for Monday.

A track like that is a much easier way for for the southeast crew to score. I’d roll the dice with that look, even if verbatim it’s too warm.