GrandmasterB

Kinda nice in a way to have no skin in the game.  I get the “I’d take 10 in a heartbeat” sentiment, but if Euro takes 12+ away from me right before game time I’d be a mess!

Nice tick west on the 0Z RGEM for those keeping score.

Interesting NAM run.  Eastern sections scraped by the coastal.

27 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 18z EPS moved slightly back to the west and gets MDT to 2 inches of snow and Lancaster over 3.
Still several ensemble members are west of the mean low position.

 

I'll take the 968 at the mouth of the Chesapeake!

LOL.  Euro doesn't want to surrender!  Doesn't mean much for us but places to the east have a huge difference right now between Euro and pretty much every other model.

Just a little different than the Euro!

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

At this point it's fair to say (I think) that the GFS > Euro. 

Not sure 3 years ago I'd ever believe that...

Not just the Euro but its ensembles too.  They've been downright terrible.  GFS really taking the Euro to the woodshed this year.

Pretty crazy how different the GFS is.  Verbatim it's little to no impact anywhere.  It will be entertaining to follow simply to see what ultimately verifies.  I think the 12Z Euro makes a sizeable move to the GFS...just a guess.

13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This type of gradient is common for these storms: (and typically, the ground truth ends up about 50 miles east of what is showing on these maps)

 

It hasn't been all bad news since the 0Z suite but what you are saying right here is my biggest worry.  Typically, at go time the western extent of the precip shield doesn't materialize as modeled.  If you are on the western edge prepare to be disappointed.  So we need some cushion which we clearly don't have.  Then let's say the NAM and Euro are just a bit overamped and move slightly to the GFS and they basically meet in the middle.  That's game over for anyone in this sub.  Let's hope we can pull a miracle 12 seconds to get into field goal range Andy Reid magic...I think we need it!

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

0z GFS looks east from its earlier runs fwiw. Friday looks interesting though  

IMO this isn’t our storm - which is fine. This is fun to track for the epic weather it’ll bring SNE. 

The 0Z GFS really isn't all that great for SNE.  Boston and Cape do ok but it's nothing historic.

Looks ok to me

Nice seeing a cluster of lows to the west of the mean.  As pointed out by Blizz93, some of those are strong and close to the coast.  Interesting.

I'm missing 18 hours of that map (vs. 12Z).  I just stole it from the Mid-Atl forum.  I don't have Euro access 

18Z Euro.  It may still be snowing lightly in our hood at this point as well.

Yep, agreed on both points!  GFS did not take a step back and I thought improved in the upper levels.  Other thing I also noticed is that a few days ago the storm wasn't really developing until at our latitude or later.  Which wouldn't work.  Now the models are strengthening it around the outer banks as it moves northeast.  The trend has been to strengthen the storm further south...I'm guessing because of an earlier/cleaner phase.  Let's see if we can keep that going!

I thought the end result was going to be a lot better on the 18Z GFS.  The trends were noticeably better early on.

This is the run that I'd really like the GFS to trend 30-50 miles towards the Euro.  If it holds or goes east we can probably say the Euro is overamped.

LOL.  When the central/northern posters start throwing out the congrats for the southern crew at 90 hours out, that's a great sign it's not done trending!

I'm ready to extrapolate the NAM past 84 hours because that was going to get it done.

1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

This ain’t done coming left.


.

From your lips to Mama Nature's ears!

Just give me a couple Euro ensemble lows right off of the Cheasapeake.  I'm not asking for a lot here!

That map is way overdone, but Euro does get the .5 QPF line pretty far back into parts of the forum.  Almost through all of Lancaster, which is all I care about!  

Hour 102 of the CMC is like 200 miles west of its 0Z run.  No real precip verbatim but that was a big change vs its 0Z run.

I know we haven't gotten the trends we've needed on the last couple of systems, but this is still really close for 96 hours out.  If it were 48 hours fine, I'd punt.  Trends have been west today, but also a little faster to develop the storm south of us.  All positives so far.  Can we bring the energy for 12Z Euro??