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GrandmasterB

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Posts posted by GrandmasterB

    Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    In January 2016 most models were showing around 1.5 -2' of snow across our area. Then the NAM started depicting amounts we all thought were ridiculous...like up to 40" with a bullseye on the I-81 corridor in Cumberland county. 

    The rest was history. Some parts of Cumberland county and surrounding areas approached 40". Not only was the NAM the closest in regards to amounts, it got the bullseye perfect. 

    It can certainly score its wins from time to time.  There are probably other events where it did the same as your example (which is a sample size of one).  However, in many events it’s going to overdo QPF by 20-40%.  That it does consistently.  It can also have run to run swings outside of 48 hours that are significant.

    • Like 1

    Central PA - Fall 2021

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

    Where do you fall on the scale? 

    Definitely a 3.  Although I've veered into some 4 like behaviors on occasion.  I've wanted to quit after some big time busts for sure.  And I do sometimes appreciate when New England gets hosed.  That forum goes absolutely bonkers, and it's nice not having skin in the game in that case.

    • Like 1

    Central PA - Fall 2021

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    As much as I enjoy the "how much rain will I get on Saturday discussion", I'm ready to track snow!  I very rarely post, but have been around forever (Eastern, all the street cred stuff).  I have known some of you for quite a while which is super weird...but it's the internet so don't be alarmed!  With that, I've always enjoyed the "Day in the life of a weenie" posts and other winter season kickoff activity.  I've also been amused by watching posters progress from weenie infancy to weenie superstardom.  I’ve married those two things into the list below.  I hope you enjoy, and please I know I missed a ton on here…throw out the ones I forgot!  I’d like to make this a thing each year (if it’s funny).  And btw for those who were on the Philly forum when it actually had life, Tombo followed this progression almost to a T.  Enjoy!

    GrandmasterB’s Evolution of a Snow Weenie:

    Ween level 1 (Noob) – Hi, new to the board (probably lives in Lancaster).  Posts snow deck pic obs (hopefully in the mid-atl forum by accident).  Imagine if this storm was colder and it was snow!

    Ween level 2 (In training…but somehow Voyager is here) – How much for Paw Paw?  What time does the Euro run/what did the GFS show?  Where do you guys get these models?  (TWC on in the background).  Posts WGAL snow map.  Do you guys know a good weather station to buy?  What is NAO?

    Ween level 3 (most of us) – Horst is too conservative on this one/posts twitter snow maps.  Posts model snow maps (most likely the NAM) that clearly has tons of sleet in it.  Trend is our friend!  What is MAG’s take on the new Euro?  Posts the NWS daily discussion.  Posts a highly suss snow depth obs.  I like when Daylight Savings ends so the models “run on time”.  Sidewalk is caving.  I don’t trust these off hour runs (posts 18Z snow map if it’s a crushing).

    Major Weenie (Hall of Famer) – Posts 0Z Euro PbP with analysis (no one is awake).  Posts long range maps in other forums.  ’93-’94 is my current analog.  Bemoans high sun angle during a snow event.  Picks a fight with a conservative poster in different forum.  Needs a “cooling off” period after large model/prediction bust.  Claims to be “done with models” posts the GFS next day.  It’s the storm after this one I’m interested in.  “Incoming!!” 30 seconds into a model run.  Tracks a new England snowstorm/likes it when they bust.  Starts a new weather site.

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