GrandmasterB

LOL, just messing around. It’s a big euro run for all of us and mitchnick has done PBP in the past so I thought it was fitting.

Biggest Euro run of mitchnick’s life coming up.

GEFS is sick. This was posted a few minutes ago by Millville in MA and I mentioned this yesterday. Get a strong high and even if the inland runner scenario happens we’d still get thumped. “This was what I wanted to see. A better in-situ signature on the lead will work wonders for the initial precip, as well as maintaining a decent PBL profile during any storm height. There's some serious members too on that high. Saw some 1035mb or so readings when looking at the member plots. Great to see.”

Keep us posted!

Typical swings at 120+ hours out and 30 model runs per day. A blend of all the 12Z guidance thus far would be fine for us.

Impressive 6Z euro output. My goodness.

Would love to see that High continue to strengthen that way even if the primary goes further north we still get a thump.

Thanks for the PBP mitchnick! As others have stated, long way to go on this one but at least we should have a few days of tracking.

I’d buy that look right now for Jan 04. I get surface temps are iffy, but with that track central would be in the game. It’s not like the low is plowing up into Philly, if the track is offshore 50 miles I like our chances for some snow. Also, as Blizz is pointing out maybe multiple chances too. Great runs overnight.

Unreal

Nice to see some threats popping up now on the operational runs. Hopefully we start tracking some storms within the 5-7 day range!

Very few silver linings to no snow…but one is definitely the meltdowns in the New England forum.

Sorry I only pay attention during the winter…did our region have to give anything up to get mitchnick? I thought mitchnick only posted in mid-Atlantic. Great addition for this sub forum.

It was great for Lancaster and a few other spots to really cash in on an overperformer yesterday. I never tracked that event and got 4 hours of light snow that accumulated on grass and even some paved spots. Could already rank this year ahead of last year!

We all know the deal with these post frontal systems. Cold air usually takes longer to come in than modeled. West winds cut the precip off quickly east of the mountains. Set low expectations.

Low probability next week (obviously) but I believe this should kick off tracking season in earnest. Feels good to be back. Can’t be as bad as last year, right? RIGHT??

Narrator: They did not.

That line is looking pretty gnarly. I only check in during the summer if I expect the goods so you guys better deliver!

I was hoping someone would make that joke. One of my all time favorites!

The sun felt great today! I’m going to call it quits and officially say I’m ready for spring. It was great riding with all of you even though this winter was beyond dreadful. One of my favorite winter activities is waking up and immediately checking the models and all of the overnight posts. Can’t wait to start it all over again in October. I occasionally check in on severe, but for the most part I’ll be out until first frost. Hope everyone stays safe and well until then, and maybe we can plan a get together in the fall! Thanks again friends!!

100% correct. I know sun angle gets thrown around a lot across the forums, but in March it can be an accumulation killer. Especially, as you pointed out, in light to moderate intensity periods.

Shaping up to be a pretty big bust though in populated areas of CT/Eastern Mass. Forecast areas of 12-16 may end up with a few inches or none at all. Kinda fun to track actually since I had no emotional investment like I would have if it was impacting down here!

This New England storm is crazy. Every model has a sick cutoff depending on exact track and elevation. Check this out: Nothing to 24” in a few miles:

Crazy model war with this storm for New England. GFS is not impressive outside of elevated areas. 163 pages for this storm in their sub forum. Almost makes me glad to be on the sideline!

Interesting NAM run