Certainly, a bump in the right direction on the GFS. Let's see what the other models do. Without any of the blocking I'd be close to punting this one due to the usual nwest trend, but this is a unique set-up. Still lots of time to go.
Part of the fun in lurking is observing the chaos of the snow tracking season especially in other forums. I have to admit throughout the years this forum has been rock solid, never too high or low. I appreciate the posters here. Cheers! Here's to a great year of tracking (and hopefully cashing)!!
Storm started out a little further SE on the NAM but surface a little warmer so it washed. Looks like we'll end with close but no cigar in the southeast but north and west of Harrisburg continues to look good for some light accums.
That's quite a shift on the Euro. Kinda the only model at this point that gets rain/snow mix that far south and it's a large shift from the 0Z run so tough to put a lot of stock in it. Will probably go back closer to the 0Z run at 18Z. I'll still enjoy the digital white rain for 6 more hours.
Are you in Hershey? I'm not getting my hopes up for more than some rain/snow mix to start. We still need a lot of help. Further northwest I think could see some accumulation.
High stronger and in a better position on all 12Z guidance. A few more ticks that way and maybe even the SE portion (what I care about) gets on the board. I'd certainly be excited if I were in State College.
Looked like a general (but small) increase across the board vs. the 6Z run. I'll gladly take a widespread 4-6! Will be interesting with the east move if the counties under the watch get upgraded to warnings.
I went back through some early pages and outside of one NAM and one RGEM run nothing showed 2 feet. Even those runs were like 12-15" in the absolute max areas. Certainly not enough to warrant a forecast of 1-2 feet. Hopefully it's a nice spread of those who get a precip max (maybe east but who knows) or higher ratios and everyone can get a nice event!
I just had to bun a lot of you weenies. All of a sudden we're poo-pooing 3-6"?? That's warning criteria down here...and it's almost mid-March! CTP mentions in the a.m. write up that those to the west missing the heavy QPF are going to get good ratios, so can we temper the bridge jumping? Now if all the 12Z runs shift east...I'll be right there with you!