Very surprising considering the globals didn’t really move the rain/snow line too far north throughout the storm. Actually dip it south at the end so will be interesting to see how this happens.
And then Euro is “right where we want it range” for next weekend and still crickets in here. It’s not even March yet weenies, get your heads in the game!
Guilty. Unfortunately “getting real” this season is a Hail Mary, making its own cold air, needs a perfect track, thread the needle, gone tomorrow, 120 hour model fantasy storm.
I like rolling the dice with a well defined boundary to our south. Often times we get multiple chances and some of them can be significant. Might also see a cutter that hits a deeper cold airmass than what we had yesterday leading to a better front end thump.
There are still ways to fail of course but that’s the case in every pattern.
I just measured 2.25” on the sidewalk. Light precip that’s mostly sleet now with a few flakes mixed in. Temp hovering at 33. If it fails to rain here that would be an incredible positive bust.
Yeah, I was comparing GFS to everything else. Euro may have been 2nd closest. NAM and RGEM did poorly. And I’m only grading my hood. I’m selfish like that!
The NAM is concerning even for State College. I think that's probably curtains for down here. Really the theme of the season, just can't get anything to work.
It looks like hour 68 is available on weather.us so I compared the total snow accum map from 0Z and it’s noticeably crappier. IDK if it’s valid or not but it would make sense if it were indeed way crappier.
Oh, for sure! Very valid concern. There is a straight forward case to make that the morning marches on and temps rise before the precip even gets here. I’ll offer that it’s a 30% chance that it’s plain rain at 33 by the time it gets here and I don’t even see a flake.