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GrandmasterB

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Everything posted by GrandmasterB

  1. GrandmasterB
    Doesn't throw much precip back after the front clears. Common issue in this situation.
  2. GrandmasterB
    I thought the 12Z GFS was an improvement vs. 6Z and the 12Z CMC was an improvement vs. 0Z. GFS looks to be the furthest west of models right now. Guess I'll invest emotionally one last time this winter! Let's do it.
  3. GrandmasterB
    Hard to believe we just toss the Euro, but the RGEM snow map looks much more realistic and the Euro has not been great around here this winter.
  4. GrandmasterB
    I'll take 3-6" on the deck and call it a winter! Could be nice rates in the morning too.
  5. GrandmasterB
    I love where I'm at. Although I'd like Vermont too, but the wife has vetoed it for now! 18Z GFS ups snow across the board...more importantly shows some accums south of our area. I'm not giving up on this one yet!
  6. GrandmasterB
    In fairness to you, I'm a mile from the Lebanon border and at 600'. I still think this could surprise in the border counties with some elevation.
  7. GrandmasterB
    I looked at the HRRR and it shows 5-6 hours of snow and 2" accumulation in my hood. I didn't think it looked all that bad really. I'd sign on that real quick. I think we can punt road accumulations, but I'm not turning my nose up at 6 hours of moderate snow.
  8. GrandmasterB
    I thought the 12Z Euro was slightly colder than 0Z and was close to a wet snow bomb for Lebanon/Schuylkill on north and west. One thing going for it on that run was the slightly earlier onset of precip. If we can get decent rates early in the morning that would really help. Speaking about tonight/tomorrow.
  9. GrandmasterB
    Acceptable event IMO. Deck encased in ice, trees and anything elevated has a solid layer on it. I'll take it in a winter that has only handed us scraps!
  10. GrandmasterB
    If it's cold enough tonight and we don't get the precip I may have to meltdown on here. I apologize in advance.
  11. GrandmasterB
    Occasional sleet pellets. Temp stuck at 30 all morning. 12Z GFS is a colder run but shifted best precip north again.
  12. GrandmasterB
    Whoa! Those are big time numbers. Going to be interesting tomorrow if this continues as modeled.
  13. GrandmasterB
    Great discussion and comments today from everyone. It's a double-edged sword for sure. You throw the watches up early and the impact busts (usually does for ice) then people are hesitant to trust it next time. The time it does verify though and you have a .5 to 1" of sleet with some freezing rain on top and the travel impacts are more severe than a 6" snow. Definitely a tough one to forecast for our area!
  14. GrandmasterB
    Nevermind! Saw this in the Philly thread. Damn!
  15. GrandmasterB
    where's the 18Z Euro update at? Rumors of a souther/colder tick. paweather, whadya got??
  16. GrandmasterB
    Dewpoint is 27-28 when precip starts on the GFS. Upper 20's is different than 31/32 in these situations.
  17. GrandmasterB
    My takeaway here is that the freezing rain line is way south into MD. Even if it's wrong by 50-70 miles, we're still in the crosshairs. I'm usually pretty down on these threats but I think this one could be impactful.
  18. GrandmasterB
    I know I'll regret saying this...BUT shouldn't we be putting more stock in the NAM at this range and with this set-up? The old rule used to be globals were too aggressive (warm) with surface temps when the high was parked in this spot. The high isn't racing east this time. I know we underperformed ice lately, but this is a different set-up than the last few.
  19. GrandmasterB
    MAG talking dirty. Gotta love that!
  20. GrandmasterB
    Throw CMC in the colder than last run pile.
  21. GrandmasterB
    Very reasonable takes in here. It’s tough to get real impact at 31/32 degrees as we’ve seen so many times in the past. Each situation is different, would like one to trend towards more wintry weather (of course!). The ICON and GFS were noticeably colder at 12Z for whatever it’s worth.
  22. GrandmasterB
    I was fully ready to write this one off as "ice never verifies as significant as modeled". But dang that Euro run has me interested! Much colder than the 0Z run.
  23. GrandmasterB
    Looks like the 18Z GFS with a noticeably colder solution vs. the 12Z run.
  24. GrandmasterB
    See ya at 0Z!
  25. GrandmasterB
    What’s the opposite of being bullseye’d??? I live just slightly north of the minimum. At least the tracking has been decent. Some years we get neither!
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