GrandmasterB

Happy hour GFS doing its thing! The clown map is funny because it gives Harrisburg a 6 hour panel of sleet that accumulates 16”.

Guilty. Unfortunately “getting real” this season is a Hail Mary, making its own cold air, needs a perfect track, thread the needle, gone tomorrow, 120 hour model fantasy storm.

The individual 12Z EPS members are intriguing. Some decent hits in there.

I like rolling the dice with a well defined boundary to our south. Often times we get multiple chances and some of them can be significant. Might also see a cutter that hits a deeper cold airmass than what we had yesterday leading to a better front end thump. There are still ways to fail of course but that’s the case in every pattern.

I just measured 2.25” on the sidewalk. Light precip that’s mostly sleet now with a few flakes mixed in. Temp hovering at 33. If it fails to rain here that would be an incredible positive bust.

Yeah, I was comparing GFS to everything else. Euro may have been 2nd closest. NAM and RGEM did poorly. And I’m only grading my hood. I’m selfish like that!

Back to all snow. With over 2” I’m going with positive bust here. You love to see it!

Close to 2” here with 80/20 snow sleet mix. GFS did very well with this storm.

Well that escalated quickly! Mod snow here. Let’s see how long it holds on.

4” in two hours on the RGEM. I’d pay cash for that!

The 10:1 on TT looks even better. It’s probably clown but interesting nonetheless. Areas that can stay snow for an hour or two could do ok.

GFS will not give it up. Continues to show more snow than any other model. I’m assuming it goes down in flames.

The NAM is concerning even for State College. I think that's probably curtains for down here. Really the theme of the season, just can't get anything to work.

It looks like hour 68 is available on weather.us so I compared the total snow accum map from 0Z and it’s noticeably crappier. IDK if it’s valid or not but it would make sense if it were indeed way crappier.

Oh, for sure! Very valid concern. There is a straight forward case to make that the morning marches on and temps rise before the precip even gets here. I’ll offer that it’s a 30% chance that it’s plain rain at 33 by the time it gets here and I don’t even see a flake.

Elliot’s forecast looks reasonable to me and closely matches NWS here. I also think the concerns everyone laid out this morning are valid and warranted. However, I also think this set-up has a better “positive bust” potential than any of our previous chances so far here in the southeast. The temps and especially DP leading in aren’t bad. GFS just went colder at 12Z and NAM has DP’s in the mid 20’s tomorrow morning. This should basically be a wall of precip with little virga so if we can squeak out an extra hour of snow we could get to 2” or maybe a bit more. Again, forecast wise I think up to an inch is a prudent forecast. But I can see a path to exceeding that if it breaks right which I really haven’t seen in past chances.

0Z GFS a tick snowier down here. About the same as 18Z for true central.

About the same as 18Z here. Beefed up for true central though.

The NAM looks like a line of thunderstorms that turns to snow in our area. Whatever falls will be heavy for a few hours!

Yeah, I’m definitely cool with the optimism. My posts aren’t directed at anyone, just general venting. This season has been awful which is annoying.

Melt - Short for meltdown like trainingtime’s this morning. I’m selling 3-4 down here. State College? Sure. But since last night’s great Euro run all trends have been to hold off on precip down here until it’s too warm.

Slipping away down here as others predicted. Well at least I have a great melt lined up for Wednesday morning!

GFS trimmed the southeast edge in a disconcerting way but still implies a nice front end thump.

18Z NAM is the fail scenario where the main precip waits until the warm air gets here. Certainly can’t discount that possibility. It would be quite a nut punch considering how bad our run has been.

Great melt this morning! (Which I respect) I promise to better it if I don’t see at least 2” Wednesday.