100% correct. I know sun angle gets thrown around a lot across the forums, but in March it can be an accumulation killer. Especially, as you pointed out, in light to moderate intensity periods.
Shaping up to be a pretty big bust though in populated areas of CT/Eastern Mass. Forecast areas of 12-16 may end up with a few inches or none at all. Kinda fun to track actually since I had no emotional investment like I would have if it was impacting down here!
Crazy model war with this storm for New England. GFS is not impressive outside of elevated areas. 163 pages for this storm in their sub forum. Almost makes me glad to be on the sideline!
Euro definitely looks good, but it’s a bit on its own with how quickly it strengthens the coastal south of us. If the coastal is delayed like the GFS then the best (and maybe only) snow is well north and east. Today will be a critical day to see if the Euro folds or the other globals trend towards it.
I think you have great analysis, Nut but I have to disagree on calling this one progressive. Verbatim the GFS has the coastal low looping over and around Long Island for 18+ hours. I wouldn’t label that track progressive, the block is slowing it down it’s just too far north.
My fear in rooting for ITT2 is that one could be easily squashed by ITT1. The spacing is pretty bad. Based on the season so far, we’ll figure out a way to whiff on both.
This theory hasn’t worked all year, but I’m sticking with “I don’t want to be bullseyed 110 hours out”. In the past, there have been times that the block has forced adjustments in track further south on each subsequent model suite. I’m rolling with that for now!