looking at the surface on the GFS at hour 102 you can see a lot of deep convection to the east of the coastal low. Wonder if this is a situation where GFS shunts the coastal almost due east. Seen it before...
I may regret this later, but I’ll take the ICON solution right now. Good initial thump, bangs the coastal hard, definitely risk taint with it super tucked but if guarantees a nice hit. I don’t like The east, or late sloppy phase option.
Per the map in the Mid-Atl forum, 18Z Euro is pretty gung-ho on the Monday system for the southeast PA crew. Definitely the most bullish of all models.