GrandmasterB
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Everything posted by GrandmasterB
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Yeah NAM was really trying late. Hard to believe we have another full day of tracking this thing!
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Time to play the weenie game of give me the NAM thermals with the Euro QPF.
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I think the snow amounts on the NAM were somewhat impacted by the overall QPF and QPF intensity. Which those two things are notoriously difficult to model. Overall progression on the NAM was great.
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HH NAM is going to deliver!
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Nope 54 still dumping
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Thanks for posting those, Superstorm. Trend is clear for those of us on the bubble. Also, 12” for Allentown now??
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This gradient in Lancaster county tho
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Also keeps the snow hanging around into Sunday morning, albeit light.
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12Z Euro noticeably snowier than 0Z. I don’t have access to 6Z to compare to that run however. R/S line on 12Z struggles to move past Lebanon county this run.
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An anomaly where? Doesn’t MDT average like 30”+ a year?
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Really positive GFS run for those of us riding the line. Shifted some of the minor accumulations about 20 miles south and east of us which gives just a hair breathing room. I also thought it could have been better…when the main slug of precip arrived the GFS was a smidge colder but did something weird with the intensity. Gets the coastal organized more quickly just offshore which would help us with the BL issues.
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MU posted the 10 day Euro and was about as weenie as it gets for the depiction. We’ll see if it translates to actual snow.
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I hate this hobby
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MU riding the Euro and calling for a change to rain for us south easterners. Probably reasonable stance at this point unfortunately.
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GFS is colder at the surface vs its 12Z run. I like seeing that (obviously). Region wide 6-10.
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Nice hit on the GFS. I would think that track would keep all of us mostly/all snow especially considering how heavy that precip is modeled on the GFS.
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One thing I’ve noticed on models starting last night was a pretty significant increase in precip intensity along and to the northwest of the R/S line. So while the storm is moving along quickly it seems the intensity could be decent.
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Quite a bit more snow than the 6Z
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Not sure the doom and gloom is warranted based on the EPS. I think it’s a little deceiving having the OP end at 90. The heaviest precip wasn’t here yet.
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Decent band of 6-10 across southeastern areas. State College fringed verbatim, but I think they’d do fine with this evolution.
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Yeah, that’s a bit of a different evolution per the GFS. I think I prefer this outcome since it would leave a lot of us with some additional wiggle room if it comes more northwest within the last 48 hours.
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Too close for comfort down here with 4 days left to go. For MBY I’d like to see the stronger primary/less confluence trend reverse tonight or tomorrow or we’re in trouble.
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Rest up everyone, starting tomorrow we can start to over analyze the NAM!
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I’m fine with a region wide 6-12 and then if we get some rainers so be it. It’s been too long to be picky!
