GrandmasterB
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Everything posted by GrandmasterB
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One thing I’ve noticed on models starting last night was a pretty significant increase in precip intensity along and to the northwest of the R/S line. So while the storm is moving along quickly it seems the intensity could be decent.
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Quite a bit more snow than the 6Z
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Not sure the doom and gloom is warranted based on the EPS. I think it’s a little deceiving having the OP end at 90. The heaviest precip wasn’t here yet.
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Decent band of 6-10 across southeastern areas. State College fringed verbatim, but I think they’d do fine with this evolution.
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Yeah, that’s a bit of a different evolution per the GFS. I think I prefer this outcome since it would leave a lot of us with some additional wiggle room if it comes more northwest within the last 48 hours.
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Too close for comfort down here with 4 days left to go. For MBY I’d like to see the stronger primary/less confluence trend reverse tonight or tomorrow or we’re in trouble.
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Rest up everyone, starting tomorrow we can start to over analyze the NAM!
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I’m fine with a region wide 6-12 and then if we get some rainers so be it. It’s been too long to be picky!
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Southern stream should be plenty juiced too. QPF isn’t well modeled 100+ out, assuming that track we could see some of those higher end amounts. It’s not a slow mover but should be plenty dynamic.
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High is a touch stronger. Beat down incoming at 132.
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Looks like it’s going to be a big hit
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Primary hangs on a bit too long, otherwise it’s damn near classic.
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LOL, just messing around. It’s a big euro run for all of us and mitchnick has done PBP in the past so I thought it was fitting.
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Biggest Euro run of mitchnick’s life coming up.
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GEFS is sick. This was posted a few minutes ago by Millville in MA and I mentioned this yesterday. Get a strong high and even if the inland runner scenario happens we’d still get thumped. “This was what I wanted to see. A better in-situ signature on the lead will work wonders for the initial precip, as well as maintaining a decent PBL profile during any storm height. There's some serious members too on that high. Saw some 1035mb or so readings when looking at the member plots. Great to see.”
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Keep us posted!
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Typical swings at 120+ hours out and 30 model runs per day. A blend of all the 12Z guidance thus far would be fine for us.
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Impressive 6Z euro output. My goodness.
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Would love to see that High continue to strengthen that way even if the primary goes further north we still get a thump.
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Thanks for the PBP mitchnick! As others have stated, long way to go on this one but at least we should have a few days of tracking.
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I’d buy that look right now for Jan 04. I get surface temps are iffy, but with that track central would be in the game. It’s not like the low is plowing up into Philly, if the track is offshore 50 miles I like our chances for some snow. Also, as Blizz is pointing out maybe multiple chances too. Great runs overnight.
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Unreal
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Nice to see some threats popping up now on the operational runs. Hopefully we start tracking some storms within the 5-7 day range!
