Elliot’s forecast looks reasonable to me and closely matches NWS here. I also think the concerns everyone laid out this morning are valid and warranted. However, I also think this set-up has a better “positive bust” potential than any of our previous chances so far here in the southeast.
The temps and especially DP leading in aren’t bad. GFS just went colder at 12Z and NAM has DP’s in the mid 20’s tomorrow morning. This should basically be a wall of precip with little virga so if we can squeak out an extra hour of snow we could get to 2” or maybe a bit more. Again, forecast wise I think up to an inch is a prudent forecast. But I can see a path to exceeding that if it breaks right which I really haven’t seen in past chances.