I think you have great analysis, Nut but I have to disagree on calling this one progressive. Verbatim the GFS has the coastal low looping over and around Long Island for 18+ hours. I wouldn’t label that track progressive, the block is slowing it down it’s just too far north.
My fear in rooting for ITT2 is that one could be easily squashed by ITT1. The spacing is pretty bad. Based on the season so far, we’ll figure out a way to whiff on both.
This theory hasn’t worked all year, but I’m sticking with “I don’t want to be bullseyed 110 hours out”. In the past, there have been times that the block has forced adjustments in track further south on each subsequent model suite. I’m rolling with that for now!
Very surprising considering the globals didn’t really move the rain/snow line too far north throughout the storm. Actually dip it south at the end so will be interesting to see how this happens.
And then Euro is “right where we want it range” for next weekend and still crickets in here. It’s not even March yet weenies, get your heads in the game!
Guilty. Unfortunately “getting real” this season is a Hail Mary, making its own cold air, needs a perfect track, thread the needle, gone tomorrow, 120 hour model fantasy storm.