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GrandmasterB

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Everything posted by GrandmasterB

  1. GrandmasterB
    Why is Ruin not red tagged?
  2. GrandmasterB
    Storm #1 is plenty cold on the NAM. I’m more worried about enough precip as other models are fairly dry.
  3. GrandmasterB
    Add that GFS run to the fully tented pile! My goodness.
  4. GrandmasterB
    For the tonight thing. Interesting note by CTP in the latest update. Bolding is mine: NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/... 10-20F degree dewpoint depressions or T/Td spread continues to prevent light snow returns over the southern tier counties from reaching the ground. This setup should eventually help to enhance the llvl cold air due to favorable evaporative cooling and wet bulb effects as precip begins to spread from southwest to northeast and pick up in intensity late tonight/after midnight.
  5. GrandmasterB
    Dewpoints are low so not sure that matters too much.
  6. GrandmasterB
    Pretty strong wording from him. Interesting to see how CTP plays this one. Could make the case for watches further SE instead of advisories, but it’s a close call.
  7. GrandmasterB
    GFS is a tick colder for the Wednesday night deal. Surface temps in the upper 20’s.
  8. GrandmasterB
    Agree and I’m also noticing that the sleet accumulation maps have accums south of the M/D line which makes me think it will hang on even in southern PA for quite awhile.
  9. GrandmasterB
    Yeah, great question. That’s why I enjoy tracking ice storms. They can be tricky because heavy rain at 30 degrees doesn’t do a lot. Pretty much just runs off before it can accrete. But an 80/20 mix of freezing rain and sleet coming down light or moderate at 28 degrees can by highly impactful. We’ve witnessed busts in both directions with these set-ups. A lot of nuance.
  10. GrandmasterB
    It’s rare. If we start out with temps in the upper 20’s when the precip arrives it’s difficult to dislodge historically.
  11. GrandmasterB
    Colder run of the GFS for Thursday. Temps in the upper 20’s with sleet/freezing rain. Interesting to see if that holds or not. 28 vs. 31 makes a pretty big difference as precip is falling.
  12. GrandmasterB
    At least 8” in my yard and still moderate. Amazing storm!! Great tracking with everyone!
  13. GrandmasterB
    Just came in from sledding and it is blizzarding. Maybe 100 yards of visibility. Glorious is the right word!
  14. GrandmasterB
    I’ve noticed the back building to the south and west. I know it’s moving quick, but I think we have a few hours of this to go.
  15. GrandmasterB
    Absolutely ripping
  16. GrandmasterB
    Light flurries and pretty bright. No accumulation. Not what I expected at 1:30.
  17. GrandmasterB
    5.8” on .50 liquid
  18. GrandmasterB
    I would expect warnings to fly soon especially after that Euro run.
  19. GrandmasterB
    Hard to know who’s way off yet since we don’t have verification, but this look by the RGEM is a lot different than the 6Z Euro. This is rain in a lot of places Euro is 6”+
  20. GrandmasterB
    I’m going to go out on a limb here and say the Euro won’t be too far southeast by 100+ miles within 24 hours of go-time.
  21. GrandmasterB
    Ukie looks just a touch southeast from the GFS. Going to be a VERY interesting Euro run.
  22. GrandmasterB
    Great to wake up and see the 6Z GFS run. Maybe we all have a little wiggle room east or west too if there are any shifts in track.
  23. GrandmasterB
    GFS looks nice at 66. Storm is stronger too vs. 18Z very ninja’d
  24. GrandmasterB
    12Z NAM didn’t even have a low pressure area reflected so in my opinion it shifted infinity% to the west.
  25. GrandmasterB
    Seems like the Euro is the far right/driest goal post at the moment.
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