GrandmasterB
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Everything posted by GrandmasterB
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12Z Euro noticeably snowier than 0Z. I don’t have access to 6Z to compare to that run however. R/S line on 12Z struggles to move past Lebanon county this run.
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An anomaly where? Doesn’t MDT average like 30”+ a year?
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Really positive GFS run for those of us riding the line. Shifted some of the minor accumulations about 20 miles south and east of us which gives just a hair breathing room. I also thought it could have been better…when the main slug of precip arrived the GFS was a smidge colder but did something weird with the intensity. Gets the coastal organized more quickly just offshore which would help us with the BL issues.
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MU posted the 10 day Euro and was about as weenie as it gets for the depiction. We’ll see if it translates to actual snow.
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I hate this hobby
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MU riding the Euro and calling for a change to rain for us south easterners. Probably reasonable stance at this point unfortunately.
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GFS is colder at the surface vs its 12Z run. I like seeing that (obviously). Region wide 6-10.
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Nice hit on the GFS. I would think that track would keep all of us mostly/all snow especially considering how heavy that precip is modeled on the GFS.
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One thing I’ve noticed on models starting last night was a pretty significant increase in precip intensity along and to the northwest of the R/S line. So while the storm is moving along quickly it seems the intensity could be decent.
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Quite a bit more snow than the 6Z
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Not sure the doom and gloom is warranted based on the EPS. I think it’s a little deceiving having the OP end at 90. The heaviest precip wasn’t here yet.
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Decent band of 6-10 across southeastern areas. State College fringed verbatim, but I think they’d do fine with this evolution.
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Yeah, that’s a bit of a different evolution per the GFS. I think I prefer this outcome since it would leave a lot of us with some additional wiggle room if it comes more northwest within the last 48 hours.
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Too close for comfort down here with 4 days left to go. For MBY I’d like to see the stronger primary/less confluence trend reverse tonight or tomorrow or we’re in trouble.
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Rest up everyone, starting tomorrow we can start to over analyze the NAM!
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I’m fine with a region wide 6-12 and then if we get some rainers so be it. It’s been too long to be picky!
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Southern stream should be plenty juiced too. QPF isn’t well modeled 100+ out, assuming that track we could see some of those higher end amounts. It’s not a slow mover but should be plenty dynamic.
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High is a touch stronger. Beat down incoming at 132.
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Looks like it’s going to be a big hit
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Primary hangs on a bit too long, otherwise it’s damn near classic.
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LOL, just messing around. It’s a big euro run for all of us and mitchnick has done PBP in the past so I thought it was fitting.
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Biggest Euro run of mitchnick’s life coming up.
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GEFS is sick. This was posted a few minutes ago by Millville in MA and I mentioned this yesterday. Get a strong high and even if the inland runner scenario happens we’d still get thumped. “This was what I wanted to see. A better in-situ signature on the lead will work wonders for the initial precip, as well as maintaining a decent PBL profile during any storm height. There's some serious members too on that high. Saw some 1035mb or so readings when looking at the member plots. Great to see.”
