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LP08

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Everything posted by LP08

  1. LP08
    For sure. The coastal transfer is a pipe dream for the majority of the form excluding far and nw. Some of the best runs snowfall wise were those early Ukie runs than ran the primary way west but were super amped with the overrunning. I think it’s a lost cause of trying to get it south of us-transfer and hope.
  2. LP08
    I think we want it to amp early. The low is way way west of us. Toggle the full us map at 39. That stream of overrunning is what we want and not some disjointed flat system. If it’s flat it sends the best early stuff south and we wait for the second and that comes with the warmth.
  3. LP08
    I think it helps and hurts. Better moisture but may cause thermals issues. I’d risk thermals for a better thump which seems to be the case this go around.
  4. LP08
    Baja low a little quicker to eject
  5. LP08
    I want the deform sleet. Quicker coastal transfer (not that it will help you and me).
  6. LP08
    Rgem looks good…maybe a touch warmer above but good precip through the critical time .
  7. LP08
    It’s obviously too late with the flip but hopefully not far off on qpf? 0.6” pre flip is the goal for the metros I think.
  8. LP08
    Just look at the FV3. Still snow past 18z. its wrong but fun to look at
  9. LP08
    My take away as it took a step towards wetter. Maximizing 0z-12z is so critical.
  10. LP08
    It’s wetter but we fight over head temps.
  11. LP08
    3k looks better with the earlier stuff, at least to my weenie eyes
  12. LP08
    Like the early frames on the NAM. Better tilt out west will hopefully bring the WAA a little heavier.
  13. LP08
    Yeah that was my “ugh” reaction. Shouldn’t be posting the raw output
  14. LP08
    Doug Kammerer just posted the raw ZR from the euro and is talking about power outages…ugh
  15. LP08
    After snow and sleet…ukie almost gets us with a nice squall line…lol. 998 over deep creek
  16. LP08
    AiGFS was colder than 18z at least at 700, fwiw
  17. LP08
    Still holding on 95 and west at 18z sunday
  18. LP08
    Hope @MN Transplant doesn’t have your cell…
  19. LP08
    I’m going to pretend the FV3 is good. That is a much better thump.
  20. LP08
    Earlier runs brought the souther Baja low quicker, providing support for moisture transport (I’m not saying this right but whatevs) Every subsequent run has been holding it back, keeping the long wave trough more positive. System turns into two events.
  21. LP08
    They are so far removed from the upper level support they kind of peter out as it moves east.
  22. LP08
    Near the city I meant to add.
  23. LP08
    It’s only like 0.3-0.4 qpf pre flip. That won’t do it
  24. LP08
    I hate the GFS.
  25. LP08
    Kuchera is like 10-15 S to N from EZF up
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