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LP08

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Everything posted by LP08

  1. LP08
    Down to 14°. Mod snow, getting that fog look down the street
  2. LP08
    Yeah. I’m at 1”. The culpepper stuff looks fun but sleet won’t be far behind. Sitting in subsidence is always fun during the “prime hours”
  3. LP08
    15° and approaching mod snow here in Arlington
  4. LP08
    I just saw this and I absolutely HATE it. The org needs a shake up.
  5. LP08
    Rffs seems to be better with more precip in the timeframe we need
  6. LP08
    Has that weird dry spot almost all over Northern Va and MD compared to 6z. Surrounded by heavier stuff in all directions. Strange run but possible
  7. LP08
    Only 9 after a high yesterday here of 45. Quite a shock to the system!
  8. LP08
    3k a little thumpier than 18. Still not awesome but better
  9. LP08
    CWG has me in total 2-15 with boom bust. I feel safe
  10. LP08
    Looks like a bug at least on pivotal. Has sleet solidly in central Va then the algorithm changes all of sleet back to snow. Still is a great thump.
  11. LP08
    For sure. The coastal transfer is a pipe dream for the majority of the form excluding far and nw. Some of the best runs snowfall wise were those early Ukie runs than ran the primary way west but were super amped with the overrunning. I think it’s a lost cause of trying to get it south of us-transfer and hope.
  12. LP08
    I think we want it to amp early. The low is way way west of us. Toggle the full us map at 39. That stream of overrunning is what we want and not some disjointed flat system. If it’s flat it sends the best early stuff south and we wait for the second and that comes with the warmth.
  13. LP08
    I think it helps and hurts. Better moisture but may cause thermals issues. I’d risk thermals for a better thump which seems to be the case this go around.
  14. LP08
    Baja low a little quicker to eject
  15. LP08
    I want the deform sleet. Quicker coastal transfer (not that it will help you and me).
  16. LP08
    Rgem looks good…maybe a touch warmer above but good precip through the critical time .
  17. LP08
    It’s obviously too late with the flip but hopefully not far off on qpf? 0.6” pre flip is the goal for the metros I think.
  18. LP08
    Just look at the FV3. Still snow past 18z. its wrong but fun to look at
  19. LP08
    My take away as it took a step towards wetter. Maximizing 0z-12z is so critical.
  20. LP08
    It’s wetter but we fight over head temps.
  21. LP08
    3k looks better with the earlier stuff, at least to my weenie eyes
  22. LP08
    Like the early frames on the NAM. Better tilt out west will hopefully bring the WAA a little heavier.
  23. LP08
    Yeah that was my “ugh” reaction. Shouldn’t be posting the raw output
  24. LP08
    Doug Kammerer just posted the raw ZR from the euro and is talking about power outages…ugh
  25. LP08
    After snow and sleet…ukie almost gets us with a nice squall line…lol. 998 over deep creek
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