I could see it start out 8-1 and if we get into a consolidated CCB, we have historically done ok in those with 12-1 or so. PSU and Mappy Land will exceed that. IF it happens at all.
Based on soundings (yes I'm bored and looking at UKIE soundings), its snow from HR126 and later. Such a shallow warm nose and the surface is 33-34 to start