LP08
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Everything posted by LP08
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Temps in this scenario are all driven by rates/coastal. If we miss the main coastal, wherever the IVT sets up is going to be big winners and losers. Under it? 31/32 and pounding, edge of it? 34/35 and snizzle. It wouldn’t be a broad accumulation.
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Ukie looks quite a bit different at 33. More interaction between the NS and ss
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Man Fuck the GFS haha
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Rgem going to be real close…
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Really liking both Icon and Rgem at h5. Good trends
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Like the early on shifts on the Rgem with our NS sw
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The Norlun was post 84 with the closed h5 low going across the Va/nc border
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Damn that was significantly better at h5…one more of those?
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Sharper Trof and a little more stream interaction on the NAM through 39
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Can’t wait for the “I’m at 42° at 3 pm posts”
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Its over the upper midwest at 45 that it diverges. GFS phases in the Canadian SW to the SS one, every other model leaves them separate.
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Maybe the best HECS is the friends we made along the way. -pna
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both Rgem and ICON get the IVT and both in almost the same spot offshore at 84
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Moved to banter, but my guess is we will get a mild cave while everything trends a little better before it pulls the rug.
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Rgem some marginal steps better, better than getting worse
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I meant between it and the GFS. Strength and location of features are almost identical, minus the one that really matters over the Dakotas and Nebraska.
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Everything thing is pretty dang similar minus that West most SW in canada/montana. GFS brings it in and helps the trof tilt. NAM doing what every other model does.
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Well, through 42, i think the NAM is better than 12z, when it was pretty terrible so not saying much i guess.
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If you toggle the GFS and Euro at the early hours (36 below) and you can see it even earlier than that they are already differnt with trof orientation due to the wave in SW Canada, that difference early on has downstream effects.
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Defintely. Did not word my response the best. At 72 GFS trof is negative, ALL OTHER guidance is positive and progressive.
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Its not even in the same ballpark as the GFS at H5.
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Clicking through the Ai, it’s awfully warm along 95 during the “snow”. Starts at 35-36 and drops to 33 during the best of it towards the end. I’d be cautious with that as well
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Ukie a whiff east, just too broad
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Too many vorts to call any one solution more realistic than another. The setup is there and it just comes down to interactions and spacing.
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It’s sloppier at h5 at the critical moments. It’s ok to say it’s not as good as it was.
