Even after the first "threat" on 1/16, new GEFS looks nice through the end of the run. Euro also has fantasy overrunning after 1/16. To my weenie eyes, tracking will pick up through the end of the month.
This X100. My area has been relatively lucky this year and past years and even I am getting sick of thin stripes of "win" where it covers like 50 miles N to S.
Next few weeks really come down to the -NAO with the Pacific the way it is. You can toggle runs from days ago today and see how extreme the solutions can differ. Look at 12z post 240.