weatherwiz

saw that popup on Radarscope...looks like very close to downtown maybe even the mall area? Wouldn't have wanted to be on that stretch of 84 when those cells were moving through. I'd be shocked if there isn't an accident on the highway there

I have to say...the little time I've started using the RRFS it doesn't seem any better. Not sure how accurate it is but it seems they struggle with convection in these very high PWAT/dewpoint airmasses.

The HRRR needs to be retired...yet another abysmal job.

That has a little wind core too. If forcing was probably a bit more or we had a bit stronger of a llvl flow we'd probably be looking at multiple areas of concentrated wind damage.

Gotta love dews spiking well into the 70's. Given how easy we seem to get dews like this now I wonder if we can ever time an EML/front with dews like this. I've always been skeptical of whether we would ever see a high risk within the Northeast again but that would probably do the trick.

That may be dropping some hail western part of Waterbury

well this might actually have a shot at verifying based on the look of the cell over Waterbury

I have an updraft basically right overhead

I think this activity is trying to organize into a line across southern Mass based off satellite so he may have a good shot.

Another splitting supercell in southeastern Litchfield County

This stuff could take off in CT (particularly south and east of Hartford) but the sfc winds are turning westerly quickly. But those dews in southern CT are pretty wild. Also have to watch between BDL/Enfield. Looks like we're starting to see an increase in vertical growth finally

Stuff too early today so no BDL for me

Great insight...I was looking at KDP and noticed the core but didn't have the in-depth knowledge of what was ongoing. If this thing is able to get more vertical growth it could become quite nasty. It's also starting to bow out a bit. Not a ton of lightning yet (per Radarscope) so kind of watching to see if we get any increase.

there's the warning...right on que

It's not far off probably from producing severe wind gusts by the time it gets to Tyringham. Probably needs a warning in a few scans

Thought we could see that potential today given forecast hodos yesterday.

I would be working outside today if not for the risk for storms too early in the afternoon. Outside with a laptop and electrical wires if a storm quickly popped up...not good.

may already have a low topped supercell entering Berkshire County

For pretty weak llvl winds the clouds are moving along a bit...weird. Not sure quickly but definitely notable for what mesoanalysis is showing. Must be driven by increasing winds in the upper-lower troposphere and mid-levels. Probably help yield some transient supercell structures if we can get anything good to fire

A nice CU field building on satellite though but struggling to get much vertical development. Actually have some nice towers looking outside

Yup...most models really nailed that yesterday. Far southeast Mass and the Cape still have a shot to get crushed if activity can organize dropping southeast. 1200 J of DCAPE there per mesoanalysis...not too shabby.

cold front dropping southeast, looks like the pre-frontal trough is moving into western Mass now. Today will be a southcoast ordeal (CT/RI/MA)

Looks like we have some dewpoint pooling beginning to occur. May be headed in a direction of an organizing line that forms probably just south and east of Hartford.

I mean yeah in that retrospect that could be a bit of a pattern change but if the ridge is just wobbling back and forth does that really count? The other aspect too is we've often seen this time of year (especially lately) where EPS gets a bit too aggressive with these changes. But yeah...these fropas will certainly mean business with a more refreshed airmass. But it is end of July now so we really aren't far off from beginning to see the subtle changes towards seasonal change. But I think its more likely than not the first half of August is quite warm/humid with a few breaks behind fropas. Have to watch that WAR...that will make or break probably.

Despite whatever pretty blues people want to find, the regime and theme is going to continue well into August which is above average and humid. Any pretty blues aren't from a change in pattern, its just the product of an airmass advecting in behind a FROPA which is then replaced with the overall theme once the heights reset.