weatherwiz

It is going to be wild in Portland and especially west during the early morning

yup going to be interesting to watch that evolve later on

Not too long until we start seeing those

This is why the P-type maps can suck too and not great to use. Given how cold it is aloft, combined with some dry air, it isn't surprising many are seeing sleet or sleet mixing in.

60% of the time I go conservative every time

given the steep lapse rate you would think the neat sfc freezing temp is probably a very shallow layer and then quickly cooling but yeah there certainly is room to cool the column further. Can you recall seeing a winter storm potential where bufkit was spitting out 65-70 knots atop the mixed layer? I'm sure it's happened but that seems quite anomalous for these parts.

NAM bufkit for PWM early Thursday morning. This is a true blizzard. Blizzard for the ages

The best use the snow maps will be for this storm is printing out thousands and thousands of copies and using the paper to help keep wood stoves and fire pits going with the mass power outages coming to those up north.

been there, done that

Coastal areas are going to get rocked by wind and even into the interior. Low-level lapse rates are quite steep. I wonder if coastal Maine/New Hampshire could gusts 70-80 mph.

This area is going to get demolished if this verifies. check out how long the banding just sits and rots over this area.

portions of extreme northern New England could even tack on another multiple...perhaps several inches of snow Friday

Thunder sleet still on the table. Hope we get lase rates like this in the next few months

Well technically you're under the purple since 5,000 feet is still above you

This is some insane inflow ~80 knots feeding into -7C to -8C air at 850...oh my

That is one wonky thermal profile from like 800mb to 660mb or so. Looks like the NAM is trying to dynamically cool the column though on the 12z run around 42hr?

Fair

Because it's not the final solution. Certainly it doesn't bode well for borderline areas but subtle changes (in either direction) could be huge.

gotcha...should have been more clear. Meant it could be good for those riding the line as it at least keeps them in the game, it doesn't completely end hope (accounting for the possibility of more favorable ticks).

Well I guess it depends on perspective/expectations Someone somewhere is going to get whacked pretty good, unfortunately it's probably a small amount of people and a very small percent of the forum so I can understand the excitement may not be high. But at least from a meteorological perspective, this is going to be a blast to watch unfold. Storms like this though are a phenomenal learning tool. I wish in school there was a class or course (maybe there is in grad school) then was dedicated to studying historical storms. Just watching how everything evolves, interacts, and how all the processes involved lead to the evolution...anyone interested in forecasting could substantially boost their knowledge from these systems.

The NAM may be the way to go with this. It's doing a damn good job I think with the handling of the convection and evolution of the convection across the Ohio Valley. The NAM is quite scary today with the extent of the potential for severe weather and strong tornadoes. If the convection today becomes as robust as the NAM indicates that is good news for the interior and maybe for areas that are borderline currently.

yeah right

The NAM has trended significantly robust with the convective tomorrow. Going to be interesting to see what impact that has, does it rob moisture? Does it influence main low/secondary development? This is going to be a heck of an evolution to watch

30 days Crazy how we're within a month until severe weather season and in 2 weeks the end of the GFS run will peak into May. IT'S COMING!!!

The increase in severe weather potential and quite a bit northward shift in severe weather potential for tomorrow is wrecking some havoc. This could be a sign for a stronger primary into western Michigan at least as that would favor the warm front lifting this far north to warrant these severe probs. It will be fun later today, tonight, and tomorrow to watch in real time how the convection is influencing the upper levels