weatherwiz

I am still very torn on this. I mean it's certainly going to rain and I think at least a general widespread 1-2" is likely but am very skeptical on something like a widespread 2-4" with a strip of say 4-7". I think the NAM may be overamped with the degree of the 925 jet and despite how juiced the NAM is, there isn't a ton of convective precip. I also think we're going to see robust convection across where the SPC has the marginal (probably eventually upped a a slight risk) and that is going to (negatively) influence areas north of that.

I think what's cool about grass is you can see a dogs pee pattern in it.

Actually some good llvl dynamic cooling on the NAM

Nice good soaking. Could be a solid damaging wind event across Maryland and Delaware tomorrow.

There should be robust convection which develops across PA/MD tomorrow...I would have to think that is going to be a huge player and rob a good deal of moisture which should scale back potential for significant flooding concerns. Dynamics don't even look as impressive as they once did

This might be more of a beneficial, widespread soaking rain than anything. Localized flooding in poor drainage and low-lying areas where there is greater convective enhancement.

By the time someone reads that post in an impacted area they’ll be swept away

Forget how how to do the embeed tweet thing and it’s too much work https://x.com/nwsgrandforks/status/1950377134565785933?s=46

All have been along the ring of fire. I’d be nervous if I was in CA lol

Revised to 8.8

Wow

8.7 is insane

wtf is this

For those thinking the heat and humidity is coming to an end, it’s only beginning

Gotta say…Margrave or whatever his name is is right about the pool stuff. Took a dip in the pool and surprised how warm even the bottom water is. I’ve submerged my body in the water and when I pop out…that evaporative cooling with the lower dews really yields a quick chill.

that may actually provide focus for thunderstorms tomorrow...guess it will be a S coast day for some storms

whoops...I misspoke. NBM for the win at EWR. GFS nailed BOS.

NBM FTW

Even this cute little mouse is enjoying the heat

up, up, and away

As we compare the next several years to the 1991-2020 climate regime, it will be more difficult to notice greater departures unless we reach the next level of heat...which would be widespread lower 100's and occurring multiple times over the course of the summer. It isn't impossible that will happen but a ton would have to go right IMO to happen. What we're most likely going to continue doing is seeing consistent and a longer seasonal duration of dewpoints well into the 70's and continuing the uphill climb of overnight lows.

Well I shouldn't say its too far north but I think its intensity by the NAM is being way overplayed and its resulting in dynamics going wild.

Can essentially nowcast this tonight and early tomorrow morning by watching how the convection develops and evolves centered around Iowa. Too me I think the 12z NAM is wayyy over aggressive with the northward extent of that convection and how intense it is and its going bonkers with the dynamics.

Yeah whether this stalls or not is going to be a huge key. The front does become parallel to the upper flow which would be an indication that it will stall...just a matter of where.

What a difference between the 6z/12z NAM in how it handles the convective development and evolution tonight/tomorrow