weatherwiz

coming down steadier now, starting to whiten up the ground

Yeah I think there is some encouragement here seeing the HRRR tick a bit colder in spots versus warmer. This could bode well for those right on the line. When the HRRR gradually ticks in a particular direction, it's generally sniffing something out but crawls at a turtle's pace to get there

My gf and I will be there. Hoping to do my last final exam Friday night and we just have a dog appointment in the morning but should easily be there for 3:00. Whoever gets there first may as well head to the back so we can grab some of the bigger tables.

first flakes beginning to fall, albeit small and not many

Yeah no disagreement there...I was just more curious as to where this race is occurring more quickly right now...like where that cutoff is. I could probably pull up radarscope and look for melting layers like Scott referenced. Mesoanalysis is actually not very useful for these warming situations, especially when the warming is in between layers.

Funny you say this because I've been thinking the same thing. If we had better positioned highs with these setups, we would see suppressed storms or really strung out garbage in which the northern shield of the precipitation shield gets eroded away with drier air draining in. For HP positioned to our north, we want that when systems are coming up the coast, probably not advancing WNW out of the deep south.

Even inland farther inland (outside of SE CT, RI, E MA)?

Wow I didn't realize how low dewpoints are (with the exception of RI and far SE MA). Definitely room to wet bulb. I am going to say Kevin gets 2-3"

We can kind of see where the best banding is likely going to traverse Really want to watch the 700-500 fronto too Let's keep this warmth away

If a heavy band materializes it will definitely rip...but the key is that lift is going to have to be vigorous enough to get into the DGZ and that could be a tough task given how high the DGZ is. But the problem here still is the thermal profile below the DGZ which would still promote some melting and degrading dendrites. I could see a scenario where radar is looking solid where the beam is intersecting the mid-levels of the storm, but ground truth is, "radar looks great but the flake size sucks". They won't have to worry about this in CNE though. But farther south into Mass it will be a problem.

Doesn't look as impressive with the fronto band but was pleasantly surprised when I clicked northern ORH county. Despite the high DGZ that's some potent lift into it

Yeah you may see most of those locals only get to like 33F or so. I always think a true flash freeze is overrated around here, but tomorrow is interesting. It will get down into the 20's tonight so these paved surfaces will get cold. I guess we'll see what kind of treatments are applied, but with precipitation falling much of the day and then dropping below freezing through the evening and back into the 20's...things could slick up quick if not treated.

yup...even NAM bufkit has it too. Definitely something to watch. Could have some impact for the evening, particularly later evening commute but could make for a slew of delays out of BOS in the evening.

Overall profile is a bit toowarm but GFS bufkit does flip BOS to a couple hour period of heavy snow during the evening on the backside...even drops a quick inch or two.

Only people sniffing 10:1 ratios with this is going to be closer to CNE and probably into ME. Other than that, anyone snow down here is probably going to be closer to 8:1

really? hmmm...I always thought it was around this time with DST. But good to know, thanks!

Don't forget changing the clocks. It was 1:00-1:15 but now 12:15 with the time change.

Euro may try to get Kevin a few inches on the backside

meh how'd those physics work out for you

I would wager that you have decent odds at getting your covering and maybe even around 0.5" or so. I think some of the guidance is too aggressive with warming sfc temperatures so quickly. I understand too its the temperatures aloft which are a concern too but I think they will still be cold enough initially to support snow. But at the surface, dewpoints will still be into the upper 20's and probably some room to wet bulb at the initial onset of precipitation which should help to keep temperatures just cold enough.

Just a question of where that is but the most likely scenario is probably from Maine (just inland from the coast) back through CNE. I do wonder if there is some room to pop some 8-10" within that band.

IDK...what may prevent that idea is overall flake size might be pretty putrid. Have to wait another 56 minutes for bufkit but panning around some soundings that DGZ is awfully high. It's also difficult to find really any extraordinary lift that barely gets to the base of the DGZ. I think we'll see a narrow area where snowgrowth is excellent for a period of time, but that may be brief. Snow rates will probably be heavy but the flake size is going to be putrid. You'll have to go into NH and ME to really get the good stuff. I'm thinking 3-4" of snow is going to be the most common and widespread within the questionable areas which should hold back any power outage/damage risk. Max totals probably 5-8" into NH/ME.

The overall differences between NAM/Euro/GFS seem rather subtle but these subtle differences have significant ramifications into how this unfolds. All kind of seems to be tied into exactly where/when the sfc low becomes more defined and where/when 925/850 lows develop and close off. Of course, there is still the signal in the potential for dual lows. Regardless, this will be a nice hit from parts of Maine through central NH, southern VT and into western MA. Also wondering if we see a secondary smaller max from like Worcester into SE NH

Just northwest of that R/S line is going to rip. That's a nice fronto band that materializes on the NAM. A little concerned though because the DGZ is on the higher side so it will take some heft upward vertical motion to really crank out good growth and rates but that is doable across a narrow swath. Hell, there may also be some thunder/lightning that scrapes the Outer Cape.

guessing its probably 18z tomorrow when NAM starts to tame down.