weatherwiz

3km is ugly looking too in that regard...when storm is moving through what should be a favorable spot for CT it has a good size area of dbz in the teens. I guess just another factor to potentially consider when going full on assessment mode tomorrow. There are still many flags and concerns to address which we should be able to resolve over the next 24 hours...hopefully

I'm just looking quickly but that QPF output by the NAM may be related to lift. Just looking at fronto/VV it may be signaling subsidence zones

I believe it's replaced the Wind Chill Watch/Warnings

For sure

NWS needs new color schemes for some of these advisories. Extreme cold watch and winter storm watch too close in shade. Could give someone whose had too many IPAs the wrong idea.

You know it's coming the board explodes and then when the 0z comes out we're all smacked with a hardcore dose of reality

Probably burn all NCEP computers

I wish the 700mb velocity products were working on weathermodels. At least 500mb vorticity is working but of course the parameters which matter most aren't.

Not sure if we can expect that to verify but that would be some obscene snow rates for a time. I'm actually a bit shocked bufkit isn't spitting out greater hourly snowfall during that window. But there is also quite a difference in ratio/totals with cobb05 versus cobb11. cobb05 is pushing 25:1 for ratio lol

OHHH MY LORD. GFS Bufkit for ORH.....holy moly. BDL sucked but ORH....oh God this is gold.

fine by me...my expectation is that there will be a storm and its something that rides up along or just offshore.

Something to watch over the next 24-36 hours I think is the progression of the front south and east across the country. This is going to be huge in establishing the baroclinic zone and where that resides. I guess maybe we can compare real time and see which model may be handling this the best. Just an idea

When I load up bufkit at noon I am hoping to see some values as high as 25-30...that's what the clothes start flying off.

That makes sense. Ultimately the banding in this one will surely be farther north and west than projected, unless we really see the system crank as it is lifting northeast and we see it collapse towards the center. But with this I am starting to buy the idea of two banding signals which means there will be trouble in between. I also kind of use alot of hesitation with these point-and-click soundings. I've found you have to pay very close attention because sometimes the soundings generated are erroneous. Doesn't seem to happen alot but something I always note.

I really hope we're setting the stage for a big dog at the end of next week. I am getting extremely excited about that potential. I am going to go on a limb and say we won't see a solution that is OTS. Could be a risk where we get a track that isn't all snow for everyone but I think we are in line for something big end of next week.

Have to wait on bufkit but looking around on alot of soundings one common theme I'm seeing is alot of the max lift seems to be well below the DGZ. The GFS also may have to distinct areas of banding going on.

I include myself in that group

Just an example from northwest Connecticut but that is a quite unstable between 700-500mb. You maximize lift into the DGZ with this look at you're going to get a hefty band. I bet you would see a swath of max totals up around a foot if that verified

That's a hefty banding signature on the GFS. Actually almost looks like there could be some dry slot concerns for southeastern CT/RI/far SE MA but those drier H7 RH values are probably coming in as the heaviest QPF is moving out anyways so probably not much of a big deal. But that is also quite an unstable look...pretty good MAUL signal looking at some soundings. Big crushing

It looks like it may be slower with the south/eastward progression of the front?

Hope we continue the shuffle in the right direction!

It is that trend which is leading me to believe the NAM is not going to be correct but like I mentioned, we have seem several events over the past few years where we saw the NAM starting to cave towards other guidance and then all of a sudden other guidance started caving in the other direction. The direction I am leaning in right now is majority receive several inches of snow...that's how I felt yesterday morning when I posted in the main thread that I think this surprises...but I want to keep an open mind right now and understand we have seen some wild shifts inside 48-72 hours in recent years.

I'm expecting the NAM not to be correct as well, however, sometimes I think we get a little too aggressive with quickly discounting the NAM. We have all been burned at times in the past discounting the NAM too quickly. Agreed on telling people that a decent snowfall is a distinct possibility but I would be very nervous offering ranges right now. Regarding the 3km vs. 12km...it's wild how much those models can differ and it's something which seems to have gotten worse lately. We've have seen before where we have strong support from global models, even inside 66-78 hours and then once we got inside the 60 hour mark we started seeing big shifts and quickly.

I think I saw dendrite talking about this shortwave energy in one of the pages I was catching up on from overnight/this morning but maybe the NAM is being a bit too aggressive with it...too much influence from convection (though convection doesn't look like a big deal). But I guess there are two ways to look a this: 1) The NAM is totally off its rocker 2) It's a feasible reality and something that shouldn't be discounted, especially at this range. We all know the NAM isn't the greatest synoptically, however, it's not like it's presented output here is something that is outlandish or unlikely. It basically just continues indicating there is alot of spread. I'd be nervous putting snow maps out right now, especially if on the aggressive side.