weatherwiz

I get what you're saying. I wasn't coming across saying the signal was there Friday for rainfall totals like this or anything close to this. The only thing I was saying was it shouldn't have been a surprise there would be heavy rain today...that's all. Flooding events are extremely unique. One aspect of forecasting that is a big struggle is the forecasting of rainfall totals, especially in setups which involve stationary/occluded boundaries and when there is training involved. And this isn't a fault of anyone, it just goes to show challenging these situations are and this gets into your last sentence there. What also is intriguing about this is, how many times have we seen forecast models overstate rainfall totals during certain setups, but then in setups like these they just completely bomb? Clearly, we need to better understand the physics and processes behind this. There will certainly be some re-analysis done on this event when everything is looked it, it will be obvious how we got to this. I think Sey-Mour Snow already showed some of this. What we need to figure out is how do we take the after analysis to make the forecasting/awareness better? We always seem to understand how things happened after the fact, but we struggle with the before.

Just imagine getting a tropical system which produces these totals on a more widespread level. You would hope forward speed would be enough to negate that but its pretty scary when you think about that potential.

These kind of setups require in-depth and analysis, not just rip and reading QPF.

I didn't meh it...all I said was there was a signal for heavy rain two days ago. But I agree with your last sentence.

well I mean if anyone thought or was forecasting a dry forecast in CT not sure what they were looking at.

Yes, I know which is why I also said something like this is done via nowcasting as its impossible to know how the mesoscale aspects will evolve until its actually ongoing.

I didn't say a signal for 14" of rain. I said there was a signal for "a lot of rain".

Brother in New Britain said lightning hit something close by. Looks like it was between 0.3 and 0.5 miles away per Radarscope.

I think there have been some discussions in the past on here about flood watches and communication on potential for flooding. I totally get what you're saying. We often see flood watches and here about potential for flooding but 99.999% of the time its really just some poor drainage flooding or a handful of roads with ponding. I think how flooding potential is communicated (prior and during) needs to be heavily revisited. Flood watches/flash flood watches get tossed around way too much and there really is no discriminator between something that may be extremely localized to something which may be more widespread. Even for convective you have PDS wording to discriminate between higher end potential.

I didn't read any discussions or forecasts for today/tomorrow so not sure what the communication on it was. Granted I didn't look heavily myself but on Friday I thought the signals were there for "alot of rain". But these events are extremely challenging to forecast. I am not sure if you can even really forecast something like (especially to pin-point locally) this well in-advance just because of the mesoscale factors that tend to be in play. I mean how can you really pin-point exactly where training will occur, what rates will be, and the duration of those rates? Similar with winter storms...can be impossible to figure out exactly where that narrow band of intense snow/totals will occur until you see the pieces lining up.

Ehhh the signals were there for a lot of rain. Mentioned that Friday but everyone was too busy worried about a fake tropical threat and the colors of 8-14D WPC maps

I disagree with this to an extent. A huge part of meteorology and forecasting is having a tremendous understanding of climatology, patterns, and how pattern evolutions can influence short-term sensible weather. The best forecasters out there can typically have a solid understanding on how storm potential may evolve several days out or at least some expectation and these forecasters, if working within the private sector, can make some damn good money with this skill. There are people who dedicate their life and career to this sort of thing. The best forecasters can also assess forecast model data and each model and develop a sound idea of which forecast model is probably going to be the best at handling the situation. While not directly used in the field unless you're into heavy research or modeling, even having an understanding of mathematics (physics/calculus) and the governing equations can provide you clues and guidance in this regard. There are jobs within the private sector which almost require providing some "guarantee" or "most likely" scenario for such storms even as far as 5-6-7 days out. Many companies are understanding the need of weather and how it impacts their business and with this the private sector is growing substantially. Many places are realizing how planning around/ahead weather can save them enormous amounts of money. So let's say in the case of Ernesto, and you're either in the Northeast or someone who does business within the Northeast, and you hear of a possible hit 5-6-7 days out...you're doing to want/have to start planning on that potential this far out and you are going to want to know what this probability is so you can make your preparations. When it comes to tropical weather and hurricanes, we can easily know the likelihood of a potential system hitting our region as far as 7-10 days out. There is a very specific upper-level pattern that is needed to happen, this is why it is very difficult to get landfalling canes here.

Why can't I ever see anything like that???? Freaking ridiculous. I take a couple weeks during the summer and go around for storms and see shit but people get videos and pictures of funnel clouds, wall clouds, tornadoes, FROM PARKING LOTS OF STORES, FARMS, THEIR HOUSES, SIDE OF HIGHWAYS. Its b**********

I'm so pissed. Initial cells around here developed virtually overhead and strengthened as it tracked south (at least I had good thunder). The second round missed me by like 5 miles to the west as the storms dropped south and ended up producing all that hail in Enfield.

Could be some good rainfall totals in spots between Sunday and Monday.

DUMB

Its sliding JUST west

decent core headed towards me

Shocked there isn't a Special Weather Statement on that cell headed towards Kevin.

good thunder with the cell to my south headed into CT

yeah I was just outside with the dog and every now and then there is a whiff of a smoky smell.

yeah would not be surprised to see some hailers out there today. Wouldn't be surprised to see some transient supercells either towards the east, closer to the sea-breeze boundary.

I knew we would see a marginal today

Thought we would see a marginal risk at 1730z but I guess we'll have to wait until 6z tonight

yup...though I wonder if today is more high terrain.