weatherwiz

looks like a 1-2-3 punch for Hawaii

Hawaii may get a little something late in the weekend

Went outside. This "refreshing" airmass...it sucks.

Surprised SPC removed thunder area for tomorrow. Still looks good for some small hailers in the vicinity of the cold pool. Probably favor northern NY/VT/NW MA

it’s very depressing really.

Drove through storms in Hartford on my way to New Britain. Crazy CGs. At five churches for trivia and my friends mom got here and said lots of roads here closed due to flooding. I got lucky, didn’t encounter any getting off Rt 9 and driving through downtown

Not sure if we get into this since the core of the cold pool is over NYS, but there could be numerous small hailers around Wednesday. That is a damn impressive cold pool.

or the date stamp at the bottom

Agreed, this is going to be/already is a huge factor in some of these events. Just think of how much coastal Connecticut and Long Island have been built up since Bob and who knows how some of those building codes are. I know the buildings that were destroyed in Sandy/Irene and re-built were required to be built with those stilts but coastal Connecticut and Long Island is a catastrophe waiting to happen.

The NAM develops a slug of heavy rain/thunder during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow and moves it northeast. One of the only models showing this

Holy ****

I saw one of the two individuals who were swept away by the flood waters in Oxford was found dead I can't even imagine being caught in a situation where that occurs. The panic that must set in, I mean WTF do you do?

Yeah it very well may be just bad luck overall but its still pretty interesting. Reminds me a bit of the western New York ordeal where you have several tornado tracks which are eerie similar...some where the start/end points are nearly identical. But what you're saying about the warm season low tracks makes a ton of sense. Historically, we've seen plenty of these setups where due to the low track, we don't really drive the warm front northwards through New England, it tends to get hung up around the coast...so add the extra fuel to interact with that boundary and, viola.

ahhh right, I was thinking about checking that. Would be much easier to do that actually. But also to your earlier post which a few other have chimed in on, the number of heavy rain/flooding events across that corridor the last like 8 years has been insane. There has to be something happening on a mesoscale or microscale level. Could there maybe be some sort of coastal (or I guess Sound) enhancement going on as a result of the warmer waters over the Sound these last several years?

I wonder if there are any charts on the Iowa State site for this but I'd be curious to see occurrence of PWAT thresholds per year. I would have to think this past decade we've been running quite high in the occurrence of PWAT events up around 2''. It seems like every rain event we get now PWATS are surging to around 2''.

Mesoanalysis data is kind of scary. Looks like PWATS are on the rise across southwest CT with llvl moisture surging northwards (lower 70’s building in) with a bit of an increase in the llvl jet. It’s quite unstable too

Yeah that is not good looking. Hopefully it falls apart but what an uneasy feeling

Holy shit. I was just there for a wedding a few months ago.

Damn...I haven't been to Kettletown in years (used to hike there with my ex) but its a nice little spot. Hope everyone is alright, that is not an area you would want to be caught in flooding.

Is it possible that the processes behind these type of events are just so small-scale that modeling is unable to resolve them (even the highest resolution grids)? Today was largely a product of back-building and the process behind back-building are such small scale I don't think our technology is that advanced yet to model this process. I guess maybe one positive about the increasing frequencies of such events is that with enough studies maybe something can be developed in the near-future as we continue to better understand them.

I get what you're saying. I wasn't coming across saying the signal was there Friday for rainfall totals like this or anything close to this. The only thing I was saying was it shouldn't have been a surprise there would be heavy rain today...that's all. Flooding events are extremely unique. One aspect of forecasting that is a big struggle is the forecasting of rainfall totals, especially in setups which involve stationary/occluded boundaries and when there is training involved. And this isn't a fault of anyone, it just goes to show challenging these situations are and this gets into your last sentence there. What also is intriguing about this is, how many times have we seen forecast models overstate rainfall totals during certain setups, but then in setups like these they just completely bomb? Clearly, we need to better understand the physics and processes behind this. There will certainly be some re-analysis done on this event when everything is looked it, it will be obvious how we got to this. I think Sey-Mour Snow already showed some of this. What we need to figure out is how do we take the after analysis to make the forecasting/awareness better? We always seem to understand how things happened after the fact, but we struggle with the before.

Just imagine getting a tropical system which produces these totals on a more widespread level. You would hope forward speed would be enough to negate that but its pretty scary when you think about that potential.

These kind of setups require in-depth and analysis, not just rip and reading QPF.

I didn't meh it...all I said was there was a signal for heavy rain two days ago. But I agree with your last sentence.

well I mean if anyone thought or was forecasting a dry forecast in CT not sure what they were looking at.