weatherwiz

Certainly seems like the northern hemisphere is about to undergo a major shakeup, what that means for an outcome, who knows. But looks like the hemisphere is ready to actually transition to cool season wavelengths with more wave breaking.

I mean BDL isn't too far from downtown Hartford. About 15 minutes without traffic....6 hours with traffic.

Was outside last night around 10:00 or so, felt so weird to have it so warm in November...with a totally cloudless sky.

If we can just somehow shift that ridging over the Aleutians or maintain it and then shift it into the GoA moving into Dec. that could be a big gam changer. But I really worry with how pronounced that ridging is which extends from the Pacific through Mexico and into the Southeast U.S.

1000%. What good is a discussion without both sides of an argument? It's how we learn and grow. I mean if we all agreed on the same thing and all had the same analysis and assessment of forecast models...there would be no need for discussion...would be boring as hell haha

I'm beginning to think that when it comes our region, outside of strong ENSO events, ENSO has little correlation on us. We've seen weak events and moderate events which have produced poor snow winters, cold winters, warm winter, prolific snow winters, etc. I know there are stats and data out there on this I just don't know it off the top of my head, but let's say like 55% of weak La Nina winters produced above-average snowfall across the major climo sites...that's not really much of a correlation. Given where our region is located, there are so many other influences which help shape and define the pattern that I think at the end of the day the overall correlation of ENSO to us is very little (outside of strong events). I've gone back to the drawing board with assessing La Nina Events, EL Nino events, neutral phases. Starting from scratch with breaking down events by strength (using the oceanic definitions) for the ENS-ONI, ONI, RONI and then looking at SOI data (using Long Paddock method), and then will incorporate MEI data. When it comes to ENSO and defining events, there is so much focus and emphasis on just oceanic SST's but the atmospheric response may be just as critical or hold more weight than the state and structure of SST's. I've also always wondered how much of an influence patterns over Europe/Asia get the ball rolling. How the pattern evolves here eventually has downstream ramifications across the PAC...and this is when you introduce influences such as ENSO/MJO activity which help shape the pattern across the PAC...then this eventually has downstream ramifications on the pattern across North America, however, you also have what's going on within the PNA/EPO/NAO/AO domains which will help shape the pattern across North America. What sucks is we have ENSO data which dates back to the 1800's but obviously that data needs to be used with precaution and we don't have a great database on variables such as OLR, winds, SSTs really until the satellite era began.

Fairly heavy frost out there this morning

Not when the Bruins have been playing

I wish the 70’s to around 80 lasted one more day. I’d watch the Bruins outside today. Everytime there is a chance to watch hockey outside the weather sucks.

All bare here too except what I'm guessing are oaks.

wasn't being serious edit: it was a joke from several years ago when some trees started to bud in early Feb when we had that massive warm spell. Also think it happened in 2007 before that March cold blast

I wonder if the trees start re-budding by the end of the month.

Gusts really starting to pick up here

That would be pretty damn brutal. The 4:20 PM sunsets are brutal but I could not imagine sunrise that late...I think that would be more depressing than a 4:20 sunset.

super dreading the time change tomorrow night. only positive about it is models come out an hour earlier

Probably the same people who then complain when it's cold.

Wanted to sit outside and watch the Bruins but got dinner going to late. Just went outside to get an Amazon delivery and wish I did. This is phenomenal. Who would ever want 30's and 40's or even 50's?

I bet this is the same regime they started to experience on Venus 2 billion years ago and now they all dead

that tomato is bigger than the pumpkin

Measured 90 mph wind gust at an ASOS station in Falls City, NE and we have dews pushing 60...summah is backkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk

hmm maybe there was both '02 and '04. I can't remember '02 but I am pretty sure we also had snow before Thanksgiving in '04. I remember being in math class when we got the early dismissal announcement and that class/teacher I had was during my junior year of high school which was '04. I'm trying to recall '02...I also know one of those years we had some nasty thunderstorms roll through during the morning around Thanksgiving...may have even been on Thanksgiving.

Was it 2002 of the Thanksgiving snow or 2004 (or maybe both years). But that 2004 one (assuming I got the year right) was pretty solid. I remember we got an early dismissal from school that day. It was snowing pretty hard by late morning. Want to say I got like 5-8'' in West Hartford...maybe not quite 8.

I've never been to Kansas but last night reminded me of one of those evening nights in Kansas before a big severe weather outbreak in the Fall. Took the dog outside before the Bruins game at 6:52 PM and it felt like the scene in the beginning of Night of the Twisters where the guy is sitting in his truck and radioing back to the NWS "it doesn't feel right".

It's pretty wild seeing so many fronts just dry up as they move into the Northeast. Something you would expect moreso in late July and August versus late October and November. I hope though what we're seeing with the ridging across the East isn't an influence of or being driven by developing La Nina conditions. If that is the case and we're establishing what will be a more common presence and fixture moving through these next few months...that will not bode well for our winter prospects. NNE though could potentially cash in huge.

Chilly for sure, would be much different with the Sun out. The sky has that snow look too.