weatherwiz

Isn't there a link where you can see seasonal snowfall to-date compared to average? I would have to think even the West is below-average now...or if not many places will be soon.

Hopefully the NBM continues to be enhanced/improved too. That even seems to really suck...and in the same situations as NAM/GFS. I get its just a tool and you need to do more in-depth looking but if you're not in a position to be able to do that...oof that thing can really screw you. I do like though how the NBM at least indicates the presence of high clouds (above like 11,000 feet or 12,000 feet). This is probably why there are so many "busts" on sky cover...MOS doesn't report clouds above a certain height.

I don't know how much, if any, resources this eats up but why is a NAM MOS run? 99% of the time it's a piece of junk and laughable.

Data overload is certainly an issue. There is no realistic way for one to assess every piece of guidance for every available run. There are also way too many products available. This may seem like a good thing but it really isn't.

It is fun to have something to track but starting to track storms because of a D10+ OP run...oof. You'll be mentally exhausted after two weeks. Even when we get storms though, the forecasting has been exceedingly difficult. Very little model-to-model consistency and run-to-run consistency within 48 hours...this adds a whole new level of stress into the game, especially for those who do forecasting.

Yeah that's a good point haha. I mean I found myself a bit upset yesterday or Saturday night because I thought this upcoming Thursday had a chance and the evolution just flat out changed.

Does anyone else feel in a weird spot between time moving faster but also slower? October absolutely flew by as did November...but it seemed like time slowed a bit towards the end of November. It seems like December is going by quickly...but slowly at the same time. Not sure if the weather is factoring into that at all but think about this... We have not even officially hit winter yet and it feels like winter has sucked lmao. I mean...it's only freaking mid-December lol. It's like there is so much investment in OP runs looking at storms that pop up at 240+ hours that after like a month of being into the cool season, it's nothing but mental exhaustion. Reading some of the posts over the last week or two...you would think we're in like mid-February or late February and haven't had anything...it's only mid-December and we just hit that point. I gotta stop doing that too and breathe and realize its only mid-December.

Yup...often times guidance can be too quickly to break those types of patterns down. When you're getting deep troughs and potent lows into the GoA and that becomes reinforced, it is very hard to overcome that. You figure out peak winter climo for snow is like mid-January to mid-February...not a good look to see as we start to approach that period.

With the way things are looking to evolve for the end of the month moving into January...not a good sign at all. That isn't something that is just going to break down in a day or two either. Both the PAC and Arctic don't look to be doing us any favors...not a good sign to see moving into January.

meh I don't really buy into that whole ice growth/snow pack stuff. That is more of a reflection of the pattern versus something that is more of a pattern driver/builder.

Obviously this is just one piece to everything, but it can't be great seeing the PV becoming stronger and bottled up right in the Arctic. The entire northern Hemisphere virtually becomes above-average temperature wise and guess where the most anomalous warmth looks to occur...ahhh southeastern Canada. Almost looks strong Nino like upcoming

I am hoping to get to read this today. Want to read it on a day when I can read it and digest all of it without distractions.

Not going to lie...I've actually watched several videos

It’s chilly out. Was just outside with the dog checking for drones. Probably go out a few more times during the first and second intermissions…assuming I stay up that late

When I was outside with the dog last night and looking for meteors (I did get to see a few) I am fairly certain I saw a drone in the distance. My initial thought that it was an airplane, when planes land on BDL, depending on the wind, they will make a north arrival so they overshoot BDL and then turn over Springfield and not being terribly far from the airport, they are lower in the sky. Anyways, this was very low, just above the horizon and moving way too slowly. I have zero clue though how nobody knows what these sightings really are. Actually, I think it's total BS...there is much more that is known that what is being presented to us.

It’s what I expected but doesn’t change the fact that it sucks

This cold sucks. I miss the 60’s and 70’s from last month

Also looks like you have the system going negatively tilted down into Alabama/Georgia...huge change from what we've typically been seeing.

Too add on to that statement as well, I feel like if we're going to get a region-wide solid storm, it isn't something that is going to be well modeled several days in advance. It will be a product of subtle trends leading up to the day or two before. Perhaps this will such a scenario.

I actually agree with this statement. One key to watch I think is with the front Tuesday. It's a weak front but that could set the baroclinic zone which could come in play for the Thursday ordeal. There has been some signals for cyclogenesis to actually occur closer to the coast versus inland over the mid-Atlantic.

yeah this may end up being a solid storm for up that way.

I think this is a product of literally being controlled by the models. It's all good and fun looking in the fantasy range for storms but some take it way too seriously and close to heart...so naturally when these don't verify the panic button is pressed because it seems like, "we're losing opportunities". Or on the other end, when the OP looks "dry" in the long-range the panic button is pushed.

It's definitely a concern, no doubt. But we have to start somewhere. When you're in such a rut like we're in, often things have to do perfectly....that philosophy even extends outside of weather. Look at sports, when teams are rolling sometimes it seems no matter what they do it works out beautifully but when you're in a rut...nothing can seem to go right.

Would like to continue seeing this as we get to our climatological peak period. Get this pattern to remain and we we continue to see wavelengths change in response to the season...sometimes that can be all the difference.

Comparing model runs beyond 180 hours and coming to the conclusion that the models "lost" the storm because 0z had a storm coming up the coast while 6z is 300 miles offshore is a head scratcher. I also don't understand how the OP can be defined as "bad" just because the SLP maps don't show something. But I think people know that and well...this is a good place to vent frustrations But when that bleeds into interrupting good discussion then it gets old.