weatherwiz

I would like to see stronger height falls. I do like though how models seem to track some steeper lapse rates into here...and to verify it's not a COD algorithm forecast soundings do exhibit a weak EML signature

oops I made my post in wrong thread. too lazy to delete and add here

Excellent post!

Finally...we've been waiting all summer for this but the potential exists on Thursday for a widespread...perhaps severe weather outbreak with widespread damaging winds and perhaps some tornadoes all possible. This is a rather delicate setup, however, all the ingredients are there. as always with this type of potential there are numerous caveats and the extent of the potential probably won't be known until early Thursday morning. 1) Morning MCS - there likely will be an ongoing MCS to begin the day (riding along an instability gradient). This will certainly be one feature which complicates the forecast as we would ave to deal with cloud debris and likely subsidence behind the departing MCS. Subsidence can be good as it can help clear junk out faster, however, if it is too strong it can inhibit development later on. 2) Lack of EML/steep lapse rates. lapse rates aren't horrific, but these setups tend to have their severe weather potential (magnitude) vastly increased when there is an EML involved. With that said, combination of temperatures well into the 80's...perhaps near 90 in spots and dewpoints perhaps into the 70's with high mixing ratios should contribute to near moderate instability (again...cloud debris will be a player here too). 3) Rather strong shortwave approaching will be accompanied by anomalously strong mid-level flow with a west-to-northwest MLJ exceeding 50-60 knots with a low-level jet exceeding 30-35 knots. One caveat here is the BEST dynamics may push off the coast before we can crank again in the afternoon. This should be extremely fun to track the next few days with plenty to work out. It is extremely important to keep expectations in check b/c this is by far a lock and lots have to come together...but all the ingredients are there. Saturday has potential to be quite active as well.

Thanks! wow not bad at all up there! I was definitely hoping/I guess leaning towards the CCB cranking earlier. Guessing CT didn’t get much in the way of anything?

Are there any PNS statements or snow total maps? Didn’t see anything on NWS pages.

can'tr rule out thunder either. soundings are pretty impressive with some weak instability

true

that may have been the same exact winter I am thinking of. Actually i think you're right

Question...this isn't storm related but I can't remember this for the life of me. I remember several...several winters back...this may even go back to Eastern US Wx days but there was one winter where there was alot of talk about confluence to the north...I think that was the term...but if I am thinking of this correctly having confluence just to our north is NOT good for us...it keeps storm track suppressed to our south?

Jesus...seeing when this was made and then realizing how long we've been at American Wx is insane...7 years now Can't believe how old I'm getting

If anyone is interested in an NFL pick-em league we have two leagues which members on this board can participate in. One of the leagues is free and has been an ongoing tradition of Eastern/American Wx for at least 10 years now. This league is done directly through this forum in the sports thread. The second league is entering its third season here on the boards and is a pay-league. He platform we've used in the past is yahoo, however, a different platform may be used this year. If you have any interest in participating in one or both of the leagues check out the following thread. The more participants, the more fun the league, and for the pay league, the more potential winnings! https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50203-nfl-pick-em-2017-2018/#comment-4596041

classic

Certainly agree with many points here...obviously not from personal experience but just from the experience of listening to other people. 1. You definitely have to be willing to move...anywhere, not just in meteorology but in any major. Sure for many it would probably be great to get a job close to home where you spent the majority of your life but not everyone is lucky like that. You have to be willing to go anywhere at anytime. 2. You certainly can't think big money right away...some people get lucky like this but for the most part you have to work your way up...especially in meteorology. I have a few friends who are quite lucky...although I shouldn't say lucky, they busted their butts off and have excellent degrees. One of my best friends from middle school who went to Johnson & Whales in RI is a chief...he went to cooking school. He just got a job outside of Boston with a starting salary of 50K! Another friend who I work with at the skating rink is getting a degree in Business/Accounting, she is graduating next month and will be starting this job next month with a 50K annual salary...not including bonuses. Something else I would like to add is you have to keep ALL of your options open. You have to be willing to do almost anything you can within your degree, especially when looking for your first job. The more options you have available to you the better odds you will have. For example, when I finally get back to college and graduate my life goal is not to be a TV met...nothing against TV mets at all it's just I would rather do research or NWS or SPC, however, does this mean I will not go after any TV jobs...absolutely not. My options will also include teaching, middle school...high school...anything. Whatever options are available I'll keep them all open. I've always thought this, however, after an experience I had at work today this really popped in my mind and really stuck more. There was this new kid that came in today and was being trained, he is 21 or 22 I believe and he just graduated from the University of Hartford last December with a degree in English. He just got a job at the skating rink, he'll be a cashier making probably $8.35/HR working no more than probably 10-15 hours a week. It's sad. Someone asked him today what he planned on doing with the degree and he said he wasn't sure, that person asked him if he thought about going into teaching and he said no...that really struck me. That right there heavily decreases his options available to him. In this day and age you just can't do that.

I understand the job market in the meteorology field isn't that great but is this really a reason for people to completely give up and not even make attempts or an effort to at least try to get a job in the field? Sure it may take a while but I know I would never, ever give up. I will definitely have a backup plan and stick with that but I will never just completely give up and throw in the towel just b/c the job market isn't that great. There are always job openings in this field somewhere, granted there may not be a ton of them but you just have to fight for it and do your best. If you're still in school, make sure you're getting excellent grades and find ways to get your name out there.

Wow...this is the deadliest single tornado since the Worcester tornado of '53 which had a deal toll of 90. Just sad.